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Exactly How Different Are You From Average?

Summary

In this episode of Developer Tea, host Jonathan Cottrell continues the series on decision-making by examining a common human tendency: the belief that we are better than average. He explains how this cognitive bias affects developers’ career choices and self-perception, often leading to unrealistic expectations and poor decisions.

Cottrell introduces a practical exercise to combat this bias: identify one skill and estimate what percentile you fall into compared to others worldwide. He suggests creating a confidence interval (e.g., 60th to 80th percentile) to make this assessment more concrete. This exercise reveals how we often overestimate our abilities while rarely claiming to be the absolute best at anything.

The host then presents an antidote: instead of focusing on percentile rankings, ask “How much do I differ from the average?” This approach anchors thinking in external reality, using statistical norms and base rates as reference points. Cottrell explains that for large populations, the average is the most likely position, making significant deviations statistically less probable.

This framework applies not only to skill assessment but also to broader decision-making. By understanding how we differ from the norm—in specific ways and magnitudes—we gain clearer perspective and potential growth directions. Cottrell also addresses imposter syndrome, noting that the same exercise can help those who feel below average recognize they’re likely closer to normal than they think.

The episode concludes with a recommendation for Annie Duke’s book “How to Decide,” which inspired some of these concepts. Cottrell emphasizes the importance of seeking external perspectives before making predictions about ourselves or our situations.

Recommendations

Books

  • How to Decide by Annie Duke — Cottrell mentions this book as heavy inspiration for the episode’s concepts, specifically the approach to decision-making using external perspectives and base rates. He recommends checking it out for more thorough exploration of decision-making principles.

Tools

  • Linode cloud computing — The episode’s sponsor offers Linux virtual machines and cloud infrastructure solutions. Listeners get $100 in free credit for compute instances, S3-compatible object storage, managed Kubernetes, and more for hosting websites, building apps, or storing media.

Topic Timeline

  • 00:00:00 — Introduction to decision-making and the above-average effect — Jonathan Cottrell introduces the episode’s focus on decision-making, specifically addressing how humans tend to believe they’re better than average. He explains this cognitive bias affects various domains, including driving, even without concrete evidence. This warped self-perception can dangerously influence our choices by making us feel like exceptions to rules.
  • 00:02:21 — Practical exercise: estimating your skill percentile — Cottrell presents an exercise: identify one thing you’re best in the world at, then estimate what percentile you fall into for that skill. He acknowledges most people won’t claim to be the absolute best. The exercise involves creating a specific percentile estimate with a confidence interval range, forcing explicit thinking about skill positioning relative to others.
  • 00:06:06 — The antidote: comparing yourself to average, not percentiles — After the sponsor break, Cottrell suggests reframing the exercise: instead of percentile rankings, ask “How much do I differ from the average?” This anchors thinking in external reality using statistical norms. For large populations, the average is the most likely position, making significant deviations less probable. This approach provides clearer perspective on skill levels.
  • 00:08:37 — Applying the framework to imposter syndrome and decision-making — Cottrell explains how this framework also helps combat imposter syndrome—those feeling in the bottom percentiles can see they’re likely closer to average. The exercise reveals specific ways one differs from the norm, providing instructional guidance for growth. This thinking applies to any decision-making process where predictions about quality or satisfaction are needed.
  • 00:09:45 — Book recommendation and concluding thoughts — Cottrell credits inspiration to Annie Duke’s book “How to Decide,” recommending it for deeper exploration of decision-making concepts. He emphasizes the importance of finding external base rate perspectives before making guesses about personal situations. The episode concludes with thanks to sponsor Linode and production credits.

Episode Info

  • Podcast: Developer Tea
  • Author: Jonathan Cutrell
  • Category: Technology Business Careers Society & Culture
  • Published: 2020-11-06T10:00:00Z
  • Duration: 00:10:53

References

Podcast Info

Transcript

[00:00:00] We’ve been talking about making decisions on developer tea recently and in today’s episode,

[00:00:09] we’re going to continue this discussion specifically in today’s episode.

[00:00:14] We’re going to talk about the status quo.

[00:00:16] My name is Jonathan Cottrell.

[00:00:17] You’re listening to developer tea and my goal on the show is to help driven developers like

[00:00:21] you find clarity, perspective and purpose in their careers.

[00:00:26] Humans are an incredible species and you’re included in that.

[00:00:31] What makes us incredible is many of the things that we share, many of the characteristics

[00:00:39] of humans, for example, especially our brains, but something happens to each of us when we

[00:00:49] think about other people and more specifically when we think about ourselves with relation

[00:00:56] to other people.

[00:00:58] We are much more likely to imagine that we are better than average than to imagine that

[00:01:05] we are worse than average certainly, but even to imagine that we are on par with average.

[00:01:12] This doesn’t make a lot of sense and it reaches across multiple subjects, even the most mundane

[00:01:18] things like driving, for example.

[00:01:23] We imagine ourselves to be more competent than the average person, even when we don’t

[00:01:28] have good evidence as to why.

[00:01:32] And how we measure this, well, we don’t really know how to measure that.

[00:01:36] How can you measure the competency of a driver?

[00:01:40] Even when we don’t know how to measure it, we still believe that we would measure above

[00:01:45] average.

[00:01:48] And this affects our decision making.

[00:01:51] It makes us feel like we are some kind of anomaly, like we’re special, that we’ll stick

[00:01:57] out of the crowd in a positive way.

[00:02:00] And this can be incredibly dangerous.

[00:02:02] We very often make decisions based on this idea that we are an exception to this rule.

[00:02:09] We actually talked about this recently on Developer T. We’re going to take a little

[00:02:13] bit of a different spin and give you more practical advice in this episode about what

[00:02:18] to do about this perspective.

[00:02:21] But I want you to walk through this exercise and then we’re going to go to a sponsor break

[00:02:27] and then we’re going to come back and talk about what you can do to kind of combat this.

[00:02:32] But the exercise that I want you to do is to try to think of one thing that you are

[00:02:38] the best in the world at.

[00:02:43] Now here’s the thing.

[00:02:44] You’re very likely, if you’re like most people, to say, well, I’m not really the best in

[00:02:48] the world at anything, because it’s statistically nearly impossible for you to count yourself

[00:02:54] in that group unless it’s something esoteric like the best at being yourself, right?

[00:03:00] This is intentionally trying to give you an upper bound.

[00:03:04] So if you’re not the best in the world, then where do you fall on that particular skill?

[00:03:12] And I want you to imagine a specific number, a specific percentile, and then I want you

[00:03:19] to give that percentile some range.

[00:03:23] So let’s say you think you’re maybe in the 70th percentile.

[00:03:27] That means that you’re better than, you know, 69% of other people in the world at that particular

[00:03:33] thing and you’re on par with 1% or whatever that 70th percentile is.

[00:03:41] And then another 29% is better than you at that particular thing, right?

[00:03:47] Or I guess that’d be another 30% is better than you.

[00:03:52] Obviously math is not something I’m in the top 1% at.

[00:03:54] So this will illuminate something for you, right?

[00:03:58] So also create that range, right?

[00:04:00] So you have some level of confidence that you’re at the 70th percentile, but maybe you

[00:04:06] could go down to the 60th or up to the 80th, right?

[00:04:10] So you have a range confidence interval here where it’s 60 to 80, but you think you’re

[00:04:15] right in the middle at 70.

[00:04:17] And there is a good reason to do these kinds of exercises where you have to get very explicit

[00:04:23] with what you’re saying and what you’re thinking.

[00:04:27] We’re going to talk about that reason and how to combat this kind of problem, this idea

[00:04:32] of using our own kind of perspective on ourselves that is warped and overly positive, how we

[00:04:40] can combat that.

[00:04:41] But first I want to talk about today’s incredible sponsor, Linode.

[00:04:44] Whether you’re working on a personal project or managing enterprise infrastructure, you

[00:04:48] deserve simple, affordable and accessible cloud computing solutions that allow you to

[00:04:53] take your project to the next level.

[00:04:55] You can simplify your cloud infrastructure with Linode’s Linux virtual machines and develop,

[00:04:59] deploy and scale your modern applications faster and easier.

[00:05:04] And as a listener of Developer T, Linode is going to give you a hundred dollars worth

[00:05:08] of credit.

[00:05:09] That’s a hundred dollars in free credit.

[00:05:12] For listeners of Developer T, you can find all the details at Linode.com slash Developer

[00:05:16] T. Linode has 11 global data centers and it provides 24-7, 365 human support with no tears

[00:05:24] or handoffs.

[00:05:25] So you know you are going to be taken care of regardless of how much money you are bringing

[00:05:30] to Linode, including that hundred dollars in credit.

[00:05:34] So that hundred dollars in credit can buy beyond just doing, you know, compute instances

[00:05:39] like you’re probably used to.

[00:05:41] You can also use that hundred dollars of credit on S3 compatibles, object storage, managed

[00:05:46] Kubernetes and more.

[00:05:48] You can host your website, build your app, store or backup media.

[00:05:52] It is up to you and it’s all free with a hundred dollars in Linode credit.

[00:05:56] Once again, Linode.com slash Developer T. Make sure you click on the create free account

[00:06:01] button to get started.

[00:06:02] Thanks again to Linode for sponsoring today’s episode of Developer T.

[00:06:06] So we have this warped perspective of ourselves, of ourselves as the person that’s above average.

[00:06:15] But what’s interesting is that we very rarely believe we are the best in the world at something.

[00:06:20] So we can easily warp upward, but something in us keeps us from going all the way to the

[00:06:26] top of that range.

[00:06:27] So it makes sense to imagine what that range is.

[00:06:32] Where do we think that we fall on that range?

[00:06:35] But I want you to think about it rather than thinking about it in terms of zero to a hundred

[00:06:40] percent.

[00:06:41] You’re almost certainly likely to fall somewhere around 70 percent, by the way, if you’re thinking

[00:06:46] about that range, I want you to think about how much better you are than average.

[00:06:55] And this is an antidote, right?

[00:06:57] How much do you differ from the average?

[00:07:01] This is an antidote because it allows you to anchor, anchor yourself off of some external

[00:07:09] truth.

[00:07:11] The external truth here is that for large populations especially, the average is the

[00:07:17] most likely place for you to fall.

[00:07:21] Anything that deviates significantly from the average is a much less likely position

[00:07:27] to be in.

[00:07:28] This normal distribution of basically everything we encounter is a guiding principle for you

[00:07:35] to imagine where you fall.

[00:07:37] And this is important not just when you’re trying to imagine how good you are at something,

[00:07:40] by the way, but when you’re making any kind of decision, any kind of decision at all,

[00:07:46] you can imagine the base rate, the kind of either the median or the mode, depending on

[00:07:53] what the situation is, but something that establishes a level of normalcy.

[00:07:59] What is expected?

[00:08:00] What is the most likely, statistically speaking, most likely if we were talking about any other

[00:08:07] person?

[00:08:08] And, and here’s the key, how do I differ from that most likely scenario?

[00:08:16] In what way and to what magnitude am I better or worse than that middle of the road person?

[00:08:25] This is an incredibly important way of thinking for a lot of things.

[00:08:28] As we’ve already mentioned, kind of finding yourself on the skill spectrum, you can certainly

[00:08:34] do this on the opposite side, by the way.

[00:08:37] Given that you are struggling, like most developers do, with some level of imposter syndrome,

[00:08:42] you may feel like you are in that bottom 10%, which is contrary to that first kind of distortion

[00:08:48] that we have that we believe that we’re better than average.

[00:08:51] You may feel like you’re in the bottom 10%, but if you do this exercise, how much different

[00:08:56] am I than the normal person or in what ways do I differ from the normal person?

[00:09:02] Not only do you get a clearer picture that you’re probably closer to the average, but

[00:09:07] you also may find some instructional guidance by just doing this exercise.

[00:09:12] You say, okay, well, if I differ in these particular ways, perhaps that is the direction

[00:09:17] I can go in order to grow.

[00:09:20] So in any kind of decision-making process that you have, if there is a way to understand

[00:09:28] something that you are trying to predict, the quality of something, your future satisfaction

[00:09:34] level, whatever it is that you’re trying to imagine or forecast into the future, start

[00:09:40] by trying to find an external perspective.

[00:09:45] By the way, there’s some heavy inspiration for this episode from Annie Duke’s new book,

[00:09:50] How to Decide.

[00:09:51] I highly recommend you go and check that out.

[00:09:54] This is certainly not a paid advertisement or endorsement or anything like that.

[00:09:58] Annie doesn’t even know that I’m talking about her book right now.

[00:10:01] She’s been on the show before.

[00:10:02] We’re hoping to have her on again soon to talk about this book, but it’s really helping

[00:10:07] me think through how we make decisions even more thoroughly.

[00:10:11] And this is certainly one of the lessons that you would learn in the book.

[00:10:15] Try to find that external base rate perspective before you make a guess about where you or

[00:10:21] your situation lies on that perspective.

[00:10:24] Thank you so much for listening to today’s episode of Developer Tea.

[00:10:27] Thank you again, of course, to today’s sponsor, Linode.

[00:10:30] Head over to linode.com slash developer tea and click on the create free account button

[00:10:34] to get started with your hundred dollars worth of free credit today.

[00:10:38] Today’s episode was produced by Sarah Jackson.

[00:10:40] And as always, you can find the episode and the show notes at speck.fm.

[00:10:43] My name is Jonathan Cottrell and until next time, enjoy your tea.

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