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Inverted Thinking As a Strategy To Combat Bias

Summary

The episode introduces the concept of inverted thinking as a powerful strategy to combat cognitive biases and gain clarity. The host explains that our minds often have a positivity bias, leading us to focus only on how things could go well. Inverted thinking involves deliberately considering the opposite perspective to reveal important information that might otherwise be overlooked.

A primary example of this is the pre-mortem exercise. Instead of imagining a project’s success, you fast-forward and envision it as a miserable failure, identifying what went wrong. This process helps defeat the natural positivity bias and uncovers potential risks and pitfalls early. The host suggests applying this to daily focus by asking, “What would I do to ruin my focus today?” to better understand how to protect it.

The principle is compared to the displacement method in physics, where measuring what an object displaces reveals its volume. Similarly, examining the ‘inversion’ or opposite of a subject can carve away and reveal truth. This approach is particularly useful when cognitive biases like the halo effect are at play, such as in hiring, where considering what jobs a candidate is not qualified for can provide a more balanced assessment.

The host encourages applying inverted thinking to various areas like finding product-market fit by identifying the least ideal customer, or clarifying personal values by defining what they are not. The episode concludes by inviting listeners to share how they use this mental model in their daily work within the Developer Tea Discord community.

Topic Timeline

  • 00:00:00 — Introduction to the pre-mortem and inverted thinking — The episode begins by introducing the concept of a pre-mortem—imagining a future where a project has failed to identify what went wrong. This is presented as an example of inverted thinking, a strategy to combat our natural positivity bias. The host explains that we often only envision success, and inverting the question helps reveal potential problems.
  • 00:01:56 — Applying inversion to daily focus and productivity — The host provides another practical example: instead of asking how to stay focused, ask how you would ruin your focus today. By listing the distractions and roadblocks you would create, you gain a clearer understanding of what to avoid. This inverted list better informs your strategy for maintaining focus and getting important work done.
  • 00:03:00 — Inversion for product-market fit and personal values — The concept is extended to business and personal development. To find product-market fit, consider identifying your least ideal customer profile. To clarify personal values or career purpose, define what you explicitly do not value. These defining inversions help clarify the opposite side, providing sharper boundaries and understanding.
  • 00:03:26 — The mental model of displacement and revealing truth — Inverted thinking is compared to the principle of displacement in physics, such as Archimedes’ principle. Just as submerging an object reveals its volume by measuring displaced liquid, examining the opposite or ‘inversion’ of a subject can carve away and reveal a truth about it. This is framed as a different perspective that works well against cognitive biases.
  • 00:04:48 — Combating the halo effect in hiring with inversion — The host details how inverted thinking can combat specific biases like the halo effect during hiring. Instead of focusing on why a candidate with an impressive background is good for a job, consider what jobs they would not be qualified for. This exercise helps identify areas where undue credit is being given due to the halo effect, leading to a more balanced evaluation.

Episode Info

  • Podcast: Developer Tea
  • Author: Jonathan Cutrell
  • Category: Technology Business Careers Society & Culture
  • Published: 2024-05-15T07:00:00Z
  • Duration: 00:06:40

References

Podcast Info

Transcript

[00:00:00] If you’ve ever done a pre-mortem, then you’ve done what we’re going to be talking about

[00:00:17] in today’s episode.

[00:00:18] If you’re not familiar with the pre-mortem, the basic idea is to look at a project that

[00:00:25] you’re involved in, something that may take a significant amount of time, so try to make

[00:00:31] it at some kind of initiative level, an org level or a team project at the very least,

[00:00:38] and imagine fast-forwarding into the future by some number of months and imagine that

[00:00:44] the project has been a miserable failure.

[00:00:48] What exactly has gone wrong?

[00:00:52] This is called a pre-mortem, the idea of a pre-before-mortem, some kind of death.

[00:00:58] The project has died in some way.

[00:01:02] The way that this works in our minds is that we tend to have a positivity bias, and so

[00:01:09] when we’re thinking about something like a project, we imagine the ways that it could

[00:01:13] go well.

[00:01:15] Our vision is kind of totally taken up by ways that it could go well.

[00:01:20] We can kind of defeat this using the pre-mortem.

[00:01:23] We use the pre-mortem to intentionally think about negative things, things that have not

[00:01:30] gone well, something that killed the project.

[00:01:32] This is a type of inversion, inversion thinking or inverted thinking.

[00:01:40] The idea of inversion is to look at something from the opposite angle.

[00:01:46] Instead of focusing on one aspect, you focus on exactly the opposite aspect.

[00:01:51] Another example of this would be imagine, instead of imagining how you could stay focused

[00:01:56] today, or how you can get the most important things done today, imagine that you are trying

[00:02:03] to keep yourself from getting the most important things done today.

[00:02:08] You’re trying to make yourself less focused.

[00:02:12] You’re trying to ruin your day.

[00:02:13] What would you do?

[00:02:15] What kinds of things, what kinds of roadblocks, what kinds of distractions would you put in

[00:02:19] the way to ensure that this day is going to go poorly?

[00:02:24] It’s very likely that the list that you have for how can I focus better today will be much

[00:02:31] better informed if you use the information from the inverted question.

[00:02:39] In other words, how can I focus better today?

[00:02:43] Well, I know what I need to avoid if I look at the inverted list, the inverted list of

[00:02:50] ways that I would ruin my focus if I was trying to.

[00:02:54] If you’re trying to find product market fit, an inverted exercise might be to identify

[00:03:01] who your least ideal customer profile might be.

[00:03:06] Maybe you’re trying to identify your values or your career purpose.

[00:03:12] You’re trying to find clarity.

[00:03:14] Perhaps you look at the things that you explicitly do not consider your values.

[00:03:19] These kinds of defining inversions can help clarify the opposite side.

[00:03:26] This is kind of based on a mental model of displacement.

[00:03:31] If you imagine a ball or any object really and you’re trying to understand the shape

[00:03:38] of that object.

[00:03:39] In fact, if you wanted to measure the volume of that object, you could submerge it in liquid

[00:03:46] and measure how much displacement has occurred as a result of that immersion.

[00:03:55] This is part of the assertions of the Archimedes Principle.

[00:03:59] But the basic idea here is that the opposite or the displacement is directly related to

[00:04:08] the original object.

[00:04:10] In other words, if you wanted to understand something about the original object, you could

[00:04:16] measure what it moves out of its way.

[00:04:19] You can measure the inversion of that.

[00:04:22] You can measure the displacement.

[00:04:25] In this way, inversion or inverted thinking allows you to kind of carve away and reveal

[00:04:32] a truth rather than trying to build a truth.

[00:04:37] This is a little bit of a different perspective on the same subject.

[00:04:42] This works especially well if there is some kind of cognitive bias at play.

[00:04:48] For example, the premortem works to defeat the positivity bias.

[00:04:54] For example, let’s say that you are part of a hiring team and you’re trying to determine

[00:05:00] whether a candidate is qualified for a given role.

[00:05:04] Well, this candidate may, let’s say, have an impressive background and something relatively

[00:05:09] unrelated to the job that you have at hand.

[00:05:15] So one thing you could do, an inverted kind of thinking, might be to imagine jobs that

[00:05:21] this person is not qualified for.

[00:05:24] Recognize that the halo effect is at play whenever we have someone who has something

[00:05:29] impressive or something that we like about them.

[00:05:33] The halo effect can cause us to believe that they are good.

[00:05:37] If they’re good at that one thing, then they are also good at other things.

[00:05:41] But if we do some kind of inverted thinking rather than saying we believe that this person

[00:05:46] is going to be good for this job, we try to force ourselves into imagining what kinds

[00:05:52] of jobs would this person not be good at.

[00:05:55] This will help us recognize, okay, where are the areas that perhaps we are giving them

[00:06:00] credit where the credit is not necessarily due, it’s part of that halo effect.

[00:06:07] There are many other ways that you can use inverted thinking to your advantage.

[00:06:13] I’d love to hear how you’re thinking about it, how you’re using this kind of mental model

[00:06:18] in your day-to-day work.

[00:06:19] You can join us on the DeveloperT Discord community by heading over to developert.com

[00:06:24] slash discord.

[00:06:25] It’s totally free.

[00:06:26] It will always be free for listeners of the show.

[00:06:29] That’s developert.com slash discord.

[00:06:31] Thanks so much for listening and until next time, enjoy your tea.

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