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Leitura de 16 min

Advice on Advice - Taking Everything with a Grain of Salt

Summary

The host shares a personal story about leaving a job just before a major layoff, initially feeling clever for having ‘sniffed it out’ and avoided it. A year later, he discovers from a former boss that he was actually on the layoff list, which triggers a profound sense of vulnerability and a reevaluation of his sense of safety and control in his career.

This experience serves as a springboard to discuss the complex landscape of advice, feedback, and data professionals receive. The host lists the myriad sources—bosses, peers, platitudes, anecdotes, data, and conflicting opinions on trends like AI—that shape our thinking. He notes the paradox that even trusted, authoritative sources can give advice that is ultimately unhelpful or wrong, as evidenced by stories of people receiving great feedback right before being laid off or missing promotions.

Instead of advocating for ignoring all advice, the host suggests a more nuanced approach: continue listening, but listen for themes and common threads. Contextualize assertions, test them, and recognize that following good advice doesn’t guarantee positive outcomes due to factors like luck and ‘chaos agents’ beyond one’s control. The key is to prepare not just for success, but for failure modes and negative events that can occur regardless of one’s actions.

The host reflects that in his own case, acting on his gut and perceived control by leaving early actually resulted in a worse financial outcome (missing a severance package) than if he had been laid off. He concludes that the best strategies are dynamic, applying advice in context and considering both best and worst-case scenarios. Ultimately, he frames shared advice as snapshots of individual experience rather than silver bullets, encouraging listeners to be more open to counterintuitive ideas and more skeptical of ‘ironclad’ beliefs to become more well-rounded decision-makers.

Recommendations

Concepts

  • Anti-fragile — Referenced from Nassim Taleb, describing systems or individuals that become better from shocks, impacts, or volatility, rather than just resisting them (robust) or breaking from them (fragile).

Topic Timeline

  • 00:00:00 — Introduction to a personal layoff avoidance story — The host begins by recounting how he left a company almost exactly when a major layoff occurred. He felt he had seen it coming as a manager and had extracted value and avoided the negative event. This created a narrative of himself as someone who could ‘sniff out’ layoffs, a refrain he carried into future roles.
  • 00:02:32 — The vulnerable discovery: ‘I was on the list’ — A year after the event, the host learns from his former boss that he was on the layoff list. This revelation makes him feel vulnerable, comparing it to narrowly avoiding a car crash. It forces him to revisit his notions of safety, security, and control within his career and the industry at large.
  • 00:03:41 — The paradox and landscape of career advice — The host transitions to the broader topic of advice, acknowledging the paradox of giving advice about advice. He lists the overwhelming sources of input professionals face: bosses, peers, feedback, platitudes, anecdotes, data, and conflicting opinions (exemplified by varying takes on AI). He stresses that even trusted authorities can give bad advice.
  • 00:05:54 — How to navigate unreliable feedback and advice — Addressing what to do in this unreliable landscape, the host advises not to stop listening. Instead, listen for themes and common threads, contextualize assertions, and test them. He emphasizes that doing everything right doesn’t guarantee success due to luck and uncontrollable ‘chaos agents,’ moving the discussion toward preparation and resilience.
  • 00:07:37 — Preparing for failure and building resilience — The core advice shifts to preparing for failure modes and negative events, not just luck. The host introduces the concept of becoming ‘anti-fragile’ (citing Nassim Taleb) and building the ability to absorb impacts. Resilience comes from recognizing what happens in the moment and preparing for unlikely eventualities.
  • 00:08:58 — Personal hindsight and the cost of perceived control — The host re-examines his own story, admitting he had no expectation of being laid off. He reveals that by leaving early, he objectively had a worse outcome, missing a sizable severance package. This illustrates that even following one’s own gut and trusted advice can lead to suboptimal results, highlighting the role of hindsight and unpredictability.
  • 00:10:38 — Synthesis: Dynamic application and healthy skepticism — The host synthesizes his final advice: we make decisions in a limited context. The best strategies are dynamic, applying advice flexibly as the environment changes. He encourages listeners to be more skeptical of their most cherished advice and more open to counterintuitive ideas, understanding that shared wisdom is often just a snapshot of one experience, not a universal solution.

Episode Info

  • Podcast: Developer Tea
  • Author: Jonathan Cutrell
  • Category: Technology Business Careers Society & Culture
  • Published: 2025-05-22T07:00:00Z
  • Duration: 00:13:54

References

Podcast Info

Transcript

[00:00:00] I was on the list.

[00:00:13] It had been nearly a year since the company I was at had gone through a major layoff.

[00:00:20] And I happened to leave almost exactly at the same time.

[00:00:32] I had seen the layoff coming, perhaps because I had the benefit of being a manager, although the managers were not notified.

[00:00:42] And the day that I chose to give notice was about a week before the layoffs happened.

[00:00:50] And so on the day that the layoffs happened, I was informed that that day should probably be my last day.

[00:01:02] I didn’t get the benefits that the others who were laid off received, but I certainly felt like I was being laid off.

[00:01:12] I was leaving a job with a plan to go to another one, so I wasn’t sure how I should be feeling.

[00:01:20] The emotions of leaving a job behind can be pretty complex.

[00:01:27] They can be complex, especially when you know that what you’re leaving behind is kind of exploding behind you.

[00:01:37] Think like a Michael Bay movie.

[00:01:41] And I felt a sense of maybe pride.

[00:01:46] Maybe it was a sense of calmness.

[00:01:50] Maybe it was a sense of a complex talent that I had figured out how to determine when a layoff was about to happen so I could avoid it.

[00:02:01] And so I felt like I had gotten out just in time, that I had extracted all of the value that I could out of the experience, and I avoided the layoff.

[00:02:14] And this almost became a common refrain for me.

[00:02:18] I was able to sniff out a layoff.

[00:02:20] Again, in the future, after this experience, of course, I’m not going to tell you the companies that I was at, but in both cases, the situation felt very similar.

[00:02:32] But it was about a year after this close brush with the knife, I guess, that I found out that I was on the list.

[00:02:43] Had I not given my notice when I did, I would have been laid off.

[00:02:50] I found out from another person who also was laid off, as it turned out, my boss at the time.

[00:02:58] And for some reason, some part of me felt vulnerable.

[00:03:04] It’s sort of like finding out that somebody traveling on the same road that you were on 10 minutes earlier got in a car crash.

[00:03:13] The close brush with the threat that I fear so deeply.

[00:03:19] The feeling that…

[00:03:20] That I could have been in that seat.

[00:03:24] And that feeling made me revisit a lot of my previous notions of safety and security.

[00:03:33] And a lot of my previously held beliefs about the industry and about my job in the industry.

[00:03:41] The truth is, you will hear a lot of advice on this show, for example.

[00:03:48] But you’re going to hear it from your boss.

[00:03:50] You’re going to hear it from your peers.

[00:03:52] You’re going to hear feedback.

[00:03:53] You’re going to hear platitudes.

[00:03:56] You’re going to hear anecdotes.

[00:03:59] You’re going to be presented with data.

[00:04:02] You’re going to hear people tell you that AI is replacing your job.

[00:04:06] And then you’re going to hear another set of people tell you that AI is going to accelerate your job.

[00:04:12] And yet another set of people who say that AI is just a fad.

[00:04:17] You’ll hear opinions.

[00:04:19] And you’ll hear facts.

[00:04:21] You’ll hear opinions based on facts.

[00:04:25] And then you’ll hear people who are trying to create facts based on their opinions.

[00:04:31] The truth is that the complex landscape of all of the advice that you’re going to receive over your career.

[00:04:39] It’s going to shape the way you think.

[00:04:41] And sometimes the people that you trust the most.

[00:04:45] The people that you think are most authoritative.

[00:04:48] They’re going to give you advice.

[00:04:50] That you shouldn’t listen to.

[00:04:53] It’s kind of paradoxical that I sit here and I try to give you advice about advice.

[00:04:59] Perhaps you should turn off this podcast now.

[00:05:02] Lest I somehow infect your brain with critical thinking.

[00:05:08] Because if you continue.

[00:05:10] If you take what I say to heart here.

[00:05:13] It’s very possible that you’re going to feel a little less safe.

[00:05:18] Wherever you’re sitting.

[00:05:21] I’ve heard many stories of people who were laid off after hearing great feedback from their boss.

[00:05:28] Hearing great feedback from their peers.

[00:05:30] I’ve heard many stories.

[00:05:32] And it’s not just about layoffs.

[00:05:34] I’ve heard many stories where people were judged harshly or didn’t get the promotion.

[00:05:39] Some kind of negative event occurred in their careers.

[00:05:42] Even though all of the signals they were receiving from people.

[00:05:46] All of the advice.

[00:05:47] All of the feedback.

[00:05:49] Would not.

[00:05:50] Have given.

[00:05:50] Given them that picture.

[00:05:52] So what is there to do?

[00:05:54] In this world where.

[00:05:56] The feedback we receive may not be as reliable or useful.

[00:06:01] As we may have thought it was.

[00:06:03] Well, first of all.

[00:06:05] I want you to hear me very clearly.

[00:06:07] Don’t stop listening.

[00:06:09] Don’t stop listening to that feedback.

[00:06:12] Just because some of it is invalid or will become invalidated.

[00:06:17] Doesn’t necessarily mean all of it is.

[00:06:19] Listen for themes.

[00:06:21] Listen for common threads.

[00:06:22] Things that resonate with what your gut is telling you.

[00:06:27] Try to contextualize people’s assertions.

[00:06:31] Test them.

[00:06:32] Put them through the ringer.

[00:06:34] But also recognize that even when you are following all of the great advice.

[00:06:40] Testing it.

[00:06:41] Evaluating it.

[00:06:42] It doesn’t mean that things will go your way.

[00:06:45] That doesn’t mean that you won’t experience the layoff.

[00:06:50] Just because.

[00:06:50] Because you’re doing everything right.

[00:06:53] Or controlling all of the variables in your career and in your personal life.

[00:06:58] Doesn’t mean that luck will always go your way.

[00:07:03] There are chaos agents at the helm in many situations.

[00:07:09] And those agents are not under your control.

[00:07:12] You don’t get to tell everybody what to do.

[00:07:14] And even if you could.

[00:07:16] Perhaps your own assertions are going to be wrong.

[00:07:19] So where does this leave us?

[00:07:21] Of course we’re going to continue listening to that feedback.

[00:07:23] We’re going to test it.

[00:07:24] We’re going to do the best we can with what we have.

[00:07:27] When luck does strike.

[00:07:29] Hopefully we will be ready to take advantage of it.

[00:07:33] But my advice is to not only prepare for luck.

[00:07:37] But to prepare for failure.

[00:07:40] Prepare for failure modes.

[00:07:43] Situations that go poorly.

[00:07:45] Regardless of your actions up front.

[00:07:49] Consider yourself lucky.

[00:07:50] For the positive feedback.

[00:07:52] Because it’s probably correlated with success.

[00:07:55] But remember that everything is a distribution of probabilities.

[00:08:01] There is some chance.

[00:08:03] There is some world where all of this feedback comes your way.

[00:08:07] All of this advice comes your way.

[00:08:10] You follow it.

[00:08:11] You do your best.

[00:08:12] And still some serious negative event occurs.

[00:08:18] And resilience.

[00:08:18] Your preparation.

[00:08:21] Your ability to absorb these impacts.

[00:08:24] To even become anti-fragile.

[00:08:28] In the words of Nassim Taleb.

[00:08:30] To become better from the impacts.

[00:08:34] That’s unlikely to happen because of the good advice you receive.

[00:08:40] Instead.

[00:08:41] It’s likely to happen.

[00:08:43] Because of your ability to recognize.

[00:08:47] What happens in the moment.

[00:08:48] And what happens in the margins.

[00:08:50] Preparing for eventualities.

[00:08:53] That you may not think are likely.

[00:08:56] In my situation.

[00:08:58] I had no expectation of being laid off.

[00:09:01] I had no expectation.

[00:09:03] That my role was up on the chopping block.

[00:09:07] I thought that I was in control.

[00:09:08] That I was taking the wheel.

[00:09:10] By leaving early.

[00:09:12] Interestingly.

[00:09:13] From an objective standpoint.

[00:09:15] The outcome for me was actually worse.

[00:09:18] By leaving before the layoff.

[00:09:21] I missed out on a potential.

[00:09:23] For a fairly sizable severance package.

[00:09:27] So even when I was following my own gut.

[00:09:31] And the advice from many people.

[00:09:33] That I trusted.

[00:09:35] To take control.

[00:09:36] And leave the situation I was in.

[00:09:38] Because I felt like it was the right thing to do.

[00:09:41] And I didn’t feel like I was in the right role.

[00:09:45] I ultimately experienced.

[00:09:47] A much better situation.

[00:09:47] And I felt like I was in the right role.

[00:09:47] And I felt like I was in the right role.

[00:09:47] And I felt like I was in the right role.

[00:09:47] And I felt like I was in the right role.

[00:09:48] A minor negative impact from that.

[00:09:50] Relative to the alternative.

[00:09:52] Had I stuck it out.

[00:09:53] I would have received that severance package.

[00:09:56] And truthfully.

[00:09:57] I don’t know that I came out with.

[00:10:00] Advice in that situation.

[00:10:02] Perhaps the synthesis of that situation.

[00:10:04] The advice that I would give is.

[00:10:06] To try to be ready.

[00:10:08] For if and when that happens.

[00:10:11] But to.

[00:10:12] Stick it out.

[00:10:13] To try to stay until you are laid off.

[00:10:17] We all.

[00:10:18] We all have hindsight. We all can look back and try to synthesize what we would do again in the same scenario. But so much of our lives is unpredictable. So much of this advice is dependent on specifics of circumstances that may never happen to you.

[00:10:38] So ultimately, the advice that I’ll leave you with, that I hope you will at least consider, is that we can only make decisions in our limited context.

[00:10:52] The best strategies are usually the ones that are alive, that are applying the advice in a dynamic way. How does that advice change given the changes in the environment?

[00:11:06] How does that advice change?

[00:11:08] How does that advice play out for the unlucky scenario? What are the maximum and minimum utility values of a particular pathway?

[00:11:19] Do you have to work all this out on paper? Probably not.

[00:11:22] But if you walk away a little bit more skeptical of the advice that you believe the most, and a little more accepting of advice that might seem counterintuitive to you, or perhaps on the fringes,

[00:11:36] then I think you’re going to ultimately be able to make decisions.

[00:11:38] You’re going to eventually become a more well-rounded person, and hopefully learn that most of these things that you learn from other people, these moments of wisdom that somebody might share with you, are just a snapshot.

[00:11:51] A snapshot of one experience, and that there are no real silver bullets. There’s no secret answer. No one piece of advice that if you stumble on it, your whole life will flip upside down.

[00:12:06] Instead, all of this is just experiences that we share with one another.

[00:12:12] And in this case, I was able to learn from it.

[00:12:15] In some way, the negative experience of finding out that I was on the list has given me the opportunity to share this with you today.

[00:12:26] Thank you so much for listening to today’s episode of Developer Tea.

[00:12:29] I hope you enjoyed this episode. I hope that this gives you a new way of thinking about advice.

[00:12:34] That you will be more open to advice.

[00:12:36] That maybe you previously were not open to.

[00:12:39] And that you’ll question advice that you’ve taken to be ironclad.

[00:12:45] That you’ll run that back through the ringer.

[00:12:48] Thank you so much for listening.

[00:12:50] If you enjoyed this episode, please join us on the Developer Tea Discord community.

[00:12:53] Head over to developertea.com.

[00:12:55] Another way that you can help the show out is to leave a review in whatever platform that you listen to.

[00:13:01] The most impactful is iTunes.

[00:13:03] But we just now, finally.

[00:13:05] I can’t believe I didn’t.

[00:13:06] I didn’t do this before.

[00:13:07] But we finally have launched Developer Tea on YouTube as a podcast.

[00:13:13] We’ve had some videos in the past that we put up.

[00:13:15] But we kind of let that fall by the wayside.

[00:13:18] Now it is officially on YouTube as a podcast.

[00:13:22] It will track the feed.

[00:13:24] We’ve also increased the feed itself, the RSS feed, to have more items.

[00:13:29] Rather than limiting, I think it was limiting like 500 items.

[00:13:32] So now it’s showing all the items from the beginning of the podcast.

[00:13:36] So if you are an RSS subscriber, you may have seen some of those episodes show back up.

[00:13:42] Hopefully that will make those episodes a little more accessible to all of you.

[00:13:45] Thank you so much for listening.

[00:13:46] And until next time, enjoy your tea.

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