Iran War: Trump’s Endgame, Economic Fallout, and Polymarket Profiteering

Summary

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway dive into the U.S. military assault on Iran, which began with strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior officials. They discuss President Trump’s justification citing ‘imminent threats’ despite a lack of evidence, and the retaliatory attacks from Iran targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf countries. The hosts note the chaotic messaging from the administration, with Trump offering different rationales in media calls and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth struggling to articulate clear objectives or an off-ramp.

The conversation explores the potential economic fallout, including the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz (carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil supply), spiking oil and gas prices, and broader supply chain strains. Galloway outlines two scenarios: a forever war that explodes deficits and disrupts global trade, or an asymmetric upside where a more pro-West Iran unlocks economic potential and acts as a major trading partner. They also critique the involvement of figures like Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman in pushing for the action.

A significant portion is devoted to the erosion of Congressional power and democratic norms, with both hosts expressing sympathy for Senators like Mark Warner who are incensed at being sidelined on a decision of war. They discuss the hypocrisy of the right’s isolationist rhetoric paired with massive military spending, and the troubling rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi where millions were bet on the timing and outcome of the strikes, which Swisher characterizes as profiteering.

The episode also touches on the Trump administration’s order for federal agencies to stop using Anthropic AI (framed as ‘attempted corporate murder’ by a former official), contrasting it with OpenAI’s deal with the Pentagon. Swisher and Galloway frame this as a Silicon Valley beef playing out at the national level, with potential long-term damage to investor confidence and U.S. market multiples if the government selectively punishes companies. They conclude with wins and fails, praising SNL’s handling of the U.S. hockey teams and condemning the unprofessional, bullying behavior of figures like Emil Michael involved in the Anthropic dispute.

Recommendations

Books

Young Man in a Hurry — New book by California Governor Gavin Newsom, which he was promoting in the interview with Kara Swisher. The hosts discuss its contents and the personal stories within.

Companies

Anthropic — AI company targeted by a Trump administration order to stop federal agency use. The hosts discuss its legal challenge and frame it as being bullied for not complying with government demands.
OpenAI — AI company that reached a safety agreement with the Pentagon, contrasted with Anthropic’s stance. Its deal is seen as opportunism and complicity with the administration.
Polymarket — Prediction market platform that saw $529 million traded on contracts tied to the timing of the Iran strikes, criticized for allowing profiteering on war.
Kalshi — Prediction market that saw $36 million in bet volume related to regime change in Iran, similarly criticized for war profiteering.
Netflix — Discussed in the later segment as the big winner after walking away from the bidding war for Warner Brothers, with its stock surging.

People

Gavin Newsom — California Governor interviewed by Kara Swisher; discussed his new book ‘Young Man in a Hurry’ and criticized Trump’s actions in Iran as chaotic and dangerous.
Senator Mark Warner — Described as ‘incandescent’ over being sidelined on the Iran decision; highlighted as an example of Congressional expertise being ignored.
Dario Amodei (Anthropic) — CEO of Anthropic AI, who is challenging the government’s order; framed as a potential ‘hero’ for standing up to the Trump administration’s pressure.
Emil Michael — Former Uber executive involved in negotiating the government’s stance against Anthropic; characterized by Swisher as a ‘bullying and awful’ operator and ‘unctuous toady to the powerful.’
Sam Altman (OpenAI) — CEO who reached a deal with the Pentagon; characterized as a ‘gifted opportunist’ who made a choice to enable the Trump administration’s efforts.

Podcasts

On with Kara Swisher — Kara Swisher’s other podcast, where she conducted the interview with Gavin Newsom that is referenced multiple times throughout this episode.
The Long Game — A weekly national security podcast hosted by John Feiner and Jake Sullivan, promoted in an ad break, focusing on the next phase of the war against Iran.

Topic Timeline

00:06:18 — Opening on the U.S. assault on Iran and Trump’s justification — Kara Swisher outlines the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior officials. She notes President Trump’s justification of ‘imminent threats’ without evidence, the retaliatory Iranian attacks, American casualties, and the downing of three U.S. jets in a friendly fire incident. The segment sets the stage for discussing the chaotic execution and lack of clear objectives.
00:09:24 — Economic impact and the Strait of Hormuz closure — The discussion turns to the economic fallout, focusing on the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Swisher notes oil prices are up about 7% and gas futures jumped as much as 9%, leading to broader supply chain strain and ripple effects across the global economy due to uncertainty.
00:10:51 — Debate on Congressional power and the decision for war — Scott Galloway expresses sympathy for the argument that power has slowly leaked from Congress to the president. He argues a president should not be able to unilaterally start a war, emphasizing that the American people, through their 535 representatives, are supposed to have a say. He notes only 7% of Democrats support the action.
00:11:40 — Scott Galloway’s ‘what could go right’ scenario for Iran — Galloway outlines a potential positive outcome: Iran, with 90 million people, vast natural resources, and a strong entrepreneurial spirit, could become a pro-West economic power. He argues this could be ‘one of the biggest tax cuts in history’ through consistent oil flows and technology exchange, turning a primary agent of chaos into a neutral or friendly trading partner.
00:13:18 — Critique of the administration’s lack of clear objectives — Both hosts criticize the administration’s inability to articulate a clear off-ramp or objective. Is it regime change? A more friendly regime? They point out the inconsistency in messaging over 24 hours and compare the situation to past failed regime change attempts, noting the deep integration of the IRGC into Iran’s economy makes simple decapitation unlikely to succeed.
00:16:45 — Analysis of the strategic strike and Iran’s retaliatory mistake — Galloway analyzes the tactical success of the decapitation strike, taking out the equivalent of the president, secretary of defense, and head joint chiefs within two hours. He then argues Iran made a major strategic error by attacking civilian targets in the Gulf, isolating itself from potential regional sympathy and strengthening the case against it.
00:20:59 — The toll on the U.S. economy and hypocrisy on spending — Swisher pushes the discussion on the economic toll, including inflation and the risk of attacks on U.S. soil. Galloway contrasts the right’s isolationist rhetoric with its approval of a $1.1 trillion military budget, arguing the only rationale for such spending is regular foreign intervention. He calls for either using the military or drastically cutting its budget to pay down deficits.
00:23:06 — Profiteering on prediction markets like Polymarket — Swisher highlights the repulsive profiteering on online betting markets related to the war. Kalshi saw $36 mi ll i o ninb e t so n re g im ec han g e, an d P o l y ma r k e tt r a d e d$ 529 million on contracts tied to the timing of strikes. She criticizes Polymarket’s defense of this as an ‘invaluable source of news,’ calling it pure profiteering.
00:28:05 — The failure of Congressional consultation and shifting positions — The hosts lament the haphazard execution without Congressional involvement and the immediate shift of Republicans who were previously against such interventions. They discuss Senator Mark Warner’s justified anger, emphasizing that experienced members of Congress possess deep knowledge that could save the administration from its own mistakes, but are being ignored.
00:37:36 — Trump targets Anthropic AI in ‘attempted corporate murder’ — The conversation shifts to the Trump administration ordering federal agencies to stop using Anthropic AI after it didn’t deal with the Pentagon on safety, a move a former official called ‘attempted corporate murder.’ They contrast this with OpenAI’s deal with the Pentagon and frame it as a Silicon Valley beef (involving figures like Emil Michael and David Sacks) playing out at the national level, which could scare investors and damage U.S. market multiples.

Episode Info

Podcast: Pivot
Author: New York Magazine
Category: News News Commentary Tech News Technology
Published: 2026-03-03T11:00:00Z
Duration: 01:10:08

References

URL PocketCasts: https://pocketcasts.com/podcast/pivot/6fd43fe0-9a3f-0133-2dbd-6dc413d6d41d/iran-war-trumps-endgame-economic-fallout-and-polymarket-profiteering/ce770069-080d-4f88-a8b2-09b36c25c4c1
Episode UUID: ce770069-080d-4f88-a8b2-09b36c25c4c1

Podcast Info

Name: Pivot
Type: episodic
Site: http://nymag.com/pivot
UUID: 6fd43fe0-9a3f-0133-2dbd-6dc413d6d41d

Transcript

[00:00:00] Support for On with Kara Swisher comes from the 2027 Chevy Bolt. Oh, I love the Chevy Bolt. I have

[00:00:07] mine. How long is 25 minutes? A quick workout or a stop to the grocery store? It’s all the amount

[00:00:12] of time it takes you to charge your Chevy Bolt. As I said, I drive the Chevy Bolt myself, an older

[00:00:17] version, and now the Bolt is back and better than ever. I may have to trade it in. You can charge

[00:00:22] from 10% to 80% in just 25 minutes with public DC fast charging. That’s about half the length of

[00:00:28] this very podcast. Explore Chevy’s most affordable EV at chevy.com slash bold. Actual charge times

[00:00:35] will vary. See owner’s manual for details and limitations. Let me say again, I love my car,

[00:00:39] never had a problem with it. Best car I’ve ever owned by the Chevy Bolt.

[00:00:47] Support for the show comes from CoreWeave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we

[00:00:51] thought was possible, and at the center of it all is CoreWeave. Medical research and diagnosis,

[00:00:56] education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. CoreWeave

[00:01:01] powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose-built tech, building what’s never been

[00:01:05] built before. CoreWeave is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, ready for AI.

[00:01:10] To learn more about how CoreWeave powers the world’s best AI, go to coreweave.com slash ready for

[00:01:15] anything. This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline for the show?

[00:01:24] From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week

[00:01:30] and your world. This isn’t about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It’s about

[00:01:37] what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life.

[00:01:43] And all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get

[00:01:49] your podcasts. I should parent everybody. I think you kind of do.

[00:01:58] Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I’m Kara

[00:02:02] Swisher. And I’m Scott Galloway. So I just flew in from San Francisco, and boy are my arms tired.

[00:02:07] I’ve heard that track before. I know. I don’t know why I keep doing the night flights things. I just

[00:02:13] keep, I think I’m getting too old for it. But I had, as you can hear everybody, I have a cold

[00:02:18] and I actually was there to interview Gavin Newsom for his book, Young Man in a Hurry,

[00:02:24] which is now, I guess, Old Man in a Hurry. And so I went in to do that. And it was actually

[00:02:31] a fantastic interview. We’ll talk about it. Yeah, it’s gotten a lot of news.

[00:02:34] Yeah, I did. I’m a newsmaker, my friend. And just to be clear, to give you insight into our

[00:02:39] relationship, someone put out a thing saying that he changed his tone or he’s in support of regime

[00:02:47] change. And I wrote smart and you berated me. So why don’t you give us-

[00:02:52] Not publicly. We’re going to talk about it. We’ll get into it. I didn’t berate you. It just was

[00:02:57] inaccurately depicting the interview I had just done. Because I wrote the word smart?

[00:03:03] No, because you were tweeting an inaccurate report. That’s all.

[00:03:06] What was it? Who put out the inaccurate report?

[00:03:08] I don’t know. It just was weird. It was weird because it was so not what he said. And so it

[00:03:14] just annoys me. It just annoys me. I mean, I definitely made a lot of news in that interview.

[00:03:18] By the way, we talked a lot about his book, which was interesting.

[00:03:22] But he’s definitely not running for president because no president ever puts out a book before

[00:03:26] they run for president. I know. Well, no, he kept saying that he

[00:03:28] wasn’t sure. It was really funny. And then right afterwards, it’s actually, I like the book. It’s

[00:03:34] gotten some bad reviews, but I think they just decided who he is and are reviewing it based on

[00:03:40] sort of that unctuous, toady, slick image versus a lot of stuff that he’s done that’s brave. He’s

[00:03:45] a very complex person like yourself, Scott Galloway. I think it’s actually pretty authentic.

[00:03:50] Yeah. Let me just characterize this discussion. The book I really like, I have to say.

[00:03:54] And I think I found out a lot of things about him that he didn’t know about his mother. I knew

[00:04:00] a little bit about his mother’s assisted suicide, but it was really interesting to talk about a lot

[00:04:05] about his own struggles and not, it wasn’t the dyslexia part. We didn’t talk a lot about that,

[00:04:10] but a lot about, I didn’t know his wife had had a miscarriage, for example. He has four kids,

[00:04:17] he almost had five. There’s a lot in there. There was a lot in there. And one of the things

[00:04:22] that struck me, which brings me back to you, which I know how you like that, is he was the wife,

[00:04:27] he was the son of a single mom who was not wealthy. And he has a lot of resonances to

[00:04:34] with your mom. You know what I mean? Your story with your single mom who was struggling,

[00:04:39] father who was distant, and who he desperately wanted to be with. It was really, it reminded me

[00:04:46] a lot of you, actually. I think people underestimate

[00:04:49] Newsom, and I think they underestimate DeSantis and Rubio. But I think right now,

[00:04:57] I think Governor Newsom hands down is the leading candidate on the Democratic side. And not only

[00:05:02] that, I think I know a little bit about his personal story, and I actually think it’s quite

[00:05:05] compelling. And a lot of his personal failings, I think we’ll come across as a bit authentic,

[00:05:12] people know about them. And also, I think California is going to begin not to peek,

[00:05:18] but to recover just the right moment for him. Yeah, I suspect anyway, it was really interesting,

[00:05:22] because I did feel like I was having the same discussion you and I have had about single moms.

[00:05:26] No, look, we’re the same person, except she’s much more talented and handsome and higher

[00:05:30] character than me. Other than that, we’re the same guy.

[00:05:32] That’s what he suffers from. That’s why everybody is sensitive to you and not to him.

[00:05:35] He definitely played into it. We talked about that. It was a very personal thing,

[00:05:38] but we did get a lot of news in too. Yeah, I’m reading about it everywhere.

[00:05:42] I know. I literally see Gavin Newsom and this 11-year-old

[00:05:46] boy on stage, and I’m like, oh, I know her. And my voice is so, for those listening to it,

[00:05:51] I apologize. This is a good version of my voice. I was absolutely dead horse three hours before,

[00:05:57] and I thought I’d have to cancel, but I did all manner of things to my voice to allow it to work.

[00:06:03] And he got to, and I said, you’re lucky today. I’ve never had a man over talk me, so

[00:06:09] you’re going to get some chance to do that today, which was funny. And he does talk a lot,

[00:06:13] let me just say. So let’s get right into it. President Trump says the US military intends

[00:06:18] to continue its assault on Iran for four to five weeks if necessary. He keeps changing his tune.

[00:06:23] We’ll get to that in a second. The US and Israel began strikes on Saturday, killing Iran’s supreme

[00:06:27] leader, the Ayatollah, as well as several senior officials. Iran is retaliating all over the place

[00:06:32] with missiles and drones targeting Israel, the US bases in Gulf countries, Dubai, all manner of

[00:06:38] places. Four American service members have been killed, and Trump says there will likely be more,

[00:06:43] but quote, that’s the way it is. Kind of a callous way to put it. Three US jets were also shot down

[00:06:51] in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The crew members got out safely, thank goodness. These are

[00:06:56] $90 mi ll i o nj e t s, so t ha t^{'} s$ 270 million. Trump has justified the attack on Iran, which did not

[00:07:02] receive congressional approval by citing, quote, imminent threats, though he had not provided

[00:07:07] evidence that it looks like he doesn’t have any. That said, a lot of people are celebrating the

[00:07:11] death of the Ayatollah. Defense Secretary Pete Hague says, held a presser a little while ago,

[00:07:17] he said this is not so-called regime change war, but a regime sure did change. Not clear of either

[00:07:24] of them is true, because Trump has talked about regime change, and it doesn’t appear as the regime

[00:07:29] has changed. Hague’s tax was also asked about the timeline. Let’s listen to what he said if we can

[00:07:34] hear him directly. To the media outlets and political left screaming, endless wars. Stop.

[00:07:41] This is not Iraq. This is not endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better,

[00:07:48] and so does this president. He called the last 20 years of nation-building wars dumb,

[00:07:55] and he’s right. This is the opposite. Well, it’s nice to hear from a Stoke

[00:08:01] Both model who doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but I also want to note about this

[00:08:04] interview I did with California Governor Gavin Newsom over the weekend for the latest episode

[00:08:08] of On with Kara Spicher. It’s really interesting because one of the issues was all the misinformation

[00:08:14] online. It was really quite, it wasn’t just something you tweeted, but it was all over the

[00:08:18] place, misreporting where he stands on all this. Let’s listen to what he told me, and this was just

[00:08:22] a small piece of it, because he went on for a while, decrying Donald Trump’s action. Let’s go.

[00:08:28] And that’s Donald Trump, the chaos president, this wrecking ball president across the board.

[00:08:35] Destruction is not strength. And once again, we’ve seen him destroy not only our allies

[00:08:42] in relationship to the rest of the world, but we’re seeing him destroy any capacity

[00:08:47] to explain fundamentally what the core American interest is at this moment to declare war,

[00:08:55] to go to war with a regime. And all of this is playing out in real time.

[00:09:01] Newsom posted on X over the weekend, the corrupt and repressive Iranian regime must never have

[00:09:05] nuclear weapons. Leadership of Iran must go, but that doesn’t justify the president of the United

[00:09:09] States engaging in a legal, dangerous war, very similar to what Senator Warner said.

[00:09:14] All the senators pretty much said this guy deserved to die, and at the same time,

[00:09:17] this seems like a chaotic mess. Let’s talk a little bit about it, and especially the economic

[00:09:24] impact that the fighting has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of

[00:09:30] the world’s oil supply, as it’s recording oil prices are up about 7%. Gas futures jumped as

[00:09:34] much as 9%. Spike in energy places, supply chain strain, broader ripple effects across the global

[00:09:40] economy, especially because of the uncertainty. And the last thing I would note is, and it’s

[00:09:47] interesting because Trump does respond to this, is that there’s much reporting, including in the

[00:09:52] Washington Post, about how he was convinced to do it through Mohammed bin Salman and Benjamin

[00:09:59] Netanyahu, and even J.D. Vance and General Kaine did not want to do this, but here we are. So we

[00:10:06] talk a little bit about where it’s going to go from here and your thoughts.

[00:10:09] Well, the honest answer is I have no idea, or I have a vision for where you hope it goes,

[00:10:16] but I’m sympathetic to Governors Newsom and Senator Warner, the notion that

[00:10:22] we’re going to end up, after Trump is gone, we have to be thoughtful about how we

[00:10:30] improve the tensile strength of our democracy by stopping the slow but steady leak

[00:10:35] of power from Congress, which is the people to the president, under the auspices or cold comfort that

[00:10:40] they will stick to certain norms. Because effectively, a president should not be able,

[00:10:47] military action you can maybe justify, but this is war.

[00:10:51] He used the word war.

[00:10:52] I know, this is war. It is war. And I’m sympathetic to the notion that the reason we have

[00:10:56] 535 members of Congress representing two per state in the Senate and one for every

[00:11:03] 750,000 people is the American people are supposed to have a say, but Democrats at 7%

[00:11:08] are actually in favor of this. So there’s going to need to be… The best thing we could do coming

[00:11:13] out, or one of the best things I think coming out of the Trump administration, and this highlights

[00:11:17] that, is to have structural reform around gerrymandering, Citizens United, and that

[00:11:23] Congress has to be involved or briefed, or that we have to go back to this notion where

[00:11:27] only Congress can decide if, in fact, we go to war. Now, where could this go? As you know,

[00:11:35] I’m in favor, loosely speaking, around this action because I always like to ask myself,

[00:11:40] what could go right? Iran is 90 million people, sits on the second largest natural gas reserves,

[00:11:46] the third largest oil reserves, incredible science, incredible universities, incredible

[00:11:51] entrepreneurial spirit, actually quite a non-secular… It was, that’s for sure.

[00:11:59] Well, I would argue, anyways, fairly non-secular, a lot less anti-West than people have been led

[00:12:05] to believe by what I think is one of the most oppressive brutal regimes in history. So

[00:12:11] what could go right? You could have one of the largest economies in the Middle East become more

[00:12:18] pro-West. It’s been punching below its weight class for 20 or 30 years now because of poor

[00:12:23] technology and sanctions. You could immediately see it come up and be an economic power that is

[00:12:28] pro-West, pro-trading, pro-capitalist. What effectively might be one of the biggest tax

[00:12:34] cuts in history if you saw more consistent flows of oil and technology and a great trading partner,

[00:12:41] actually Europe would be the biggest beneficiary, and turn what has been the primary agent of chaos

[00:12:47] and terror in an unstable region into something resembling, I don’t even call it pro-West, but

[00:12:53] neutral-West. So I think there’s a lot that could go right here, and I think the risk assessment

[00:12:58] provided to the president, in my view, had a lot of asymmetric upside. Now, having said that,

[00:13:04] what they missed here was part of the pal doctrine, and that is you have to have clearly

[00:13:09] articulated objectives. Or plans for next, beyond the palm.

[00:13:13] Well, they haven’t. And to your point, they just haven’t been able to articulate in the last 24

[00:13:18] hours what is the off-ramp and the objective here. Is it regime change? Is it a more friendly regime?

[00:13:28] You’re not going to get this notion that all of a sudden we’re going to provide air cover,

[00:13:33] and the Iranian people are going to rise up and overtake 150,000 members of the IRGC who are

[00:13:38] deeply integrated into- They have outside plans. There’s some great reporting on this, by the way,

[00:13:43] my legitimate news organizations. They have contingency plans in place for what happens if

[00:13:49] the Aitola dies, and they’re carrying them out. Okay, but in Syria, Libya, in Iraq,

[00:13:58] these were autocracies with a central figurehead. The IRGC is very deeply embedded into the economy.

[00:14:05] So when your mortgage and your salary is being paid by the IRGC, it’s not like, oh, okay,

[00:14:10] the top guy, Assad is gone, and boom, it’s a new administration. So there’s a lot about the ground

[00:14:16] game. There’s a lot about intelligence assets. And if they had said, for example, a potential

[00:14:23] off-ramp, we’re going to neuter their Navy, we’re going to diminish their air defense capabilities,

[00:14:28] we’re going to make sure for sure there is absolutely no ability to create or enrich nuclear

[00:14:33] stockpiles, and then we’re going to leave it up to the Iranian people, that’s technically an off-ramp.

[00:14:38] But I have seen in the last 24 hours them talk about regime change. No, this isn’t regime change.

[00:14:43] So they haven’t been able to articulate what is next.

[00:14:47] Well, I don’t believe they thought about it. I mean, one of the things that a lot of people

[00:14:51] are pointing out is the involvement of Netanyahu and the head of Saudi Arabia, who publicly had

[00:14:57] said he was against this, but privately was quite for it and pressing for it. The linkage between

[00:15:01] the corruption with the Trump family and this coin-operated presidency that I talk about all

[00:15:05] the time is really very clear because most, I would say, they’re trying to come up with a story

[00:15:12] after the fact, oh, it hasn’t worked. It isn’t an endless war, although it feels kind of like an

[00:15:17] endless war. It feels very Bushian, right? You definitely had echoes of that. I think he thought

[00:15:23] it was going to be like Venezuela, right? That it was like, just take that guy out. And by the way,

[00:15:28] he’s in business with the Maduro administration. He didn’t regime change that place at all,

[00:15:33] like speaking of regime change. This is much more complicated.

[00:15:35] I agree, but I think he thought it was like that.

[00:15:37] No, I’m agreeing with you. This is not, take out Maduro and this is much more-

[00:15:44] He just has cowed the regime into it, but it’s the same regime. In this case,

[00:15:49] it’s really fascinating how they have put themselves into this economy in a way that’s very

[00:15:55] hard to get them out, right? Of course, this is their point of these very corrupt and,

[00:16:04] I would say, evil mullahs in Iran. But one of the things that’s fascinating to me is, one,

[00:16:10] the continued corruption of Trump’s family and Trump within this region. And second of all,

[00:16:16] that he keeps calling, have you noticed he’s calling all, I’m waiting for a call from him

[00:16:20] myself. He called Jake Tapper, he called a bunch of John Carl. He’s called all the regular old

[00:16:27] media people, essentially, or the people he decries all the time. And it seems like he’s

[00:16:32] workshopping different reasons. That’s so disturbing. Yeah, he’s trying to figure out

[00:16:39] what people want. But there is, again, what could go right here? The most powerful instinct of

[00:16:45] survival. And what we pulled off here, and when I say we, I actually think it was more the Mossad

[00:16:51] than us, we effectively, and I don’t think people really register how profound this was,

[00:16:57] within about two hours, we took out the equivalent of the president, the secretary of defense,

[00:17:03] and the head of the joint chiefs. Right, they were all in the same place. But yes.

[00:17:08] And then, and what has got to be the strategic mistake of, I would say the last five years,

[00:17:14] other than the decision by Hamas to go into Israel, geopolitically, they started attacking

[00:17:21] civilian targets within the Gulf. Farid Zakaria noted that this was their mistake.

[00:17:27] I mean, that’s just, okay, you want to isolate yourself from who should naturally be sympathetic

[00:17:34] to you. Now, going back to this notion of survival instinct, at some point, you got to think the next

[00:17:40] level down. And I don’t know if it’s 1,000, or 10,000, or 100,000, or 150,000 IRGC say, okay,

[00:17:46] we too really like our families and this thing called life, maybe we need to come to some sort

[00:17:50] of accommodation with the U.S. and the West. Well, that would require boots on the ground.

[00:17:58] And Trump didn’t even roll that out again. Here’s what really drives me crazy. This idea,

[00:18:04] they’re like, it’s not endless war. The other presidents were just dumb. It’s the same thing.

[00:18:09] You know, they’re just trying very hard to spin it. And by the way, you noted a poll that half

[00:18:13] Americans supported. It’s actually not the case. Many of the polls are showing 25%.

[00:18:18] I didn’t say that. 55% of Republicans and it’s about 30% are indifferent. Now amongst Democrats,

[00:18:23] it’s 7%. And I’m amongst the 7% of Democrats who support this. But it’s a little bit different

[00:18:30] because, okay, what they’re hoping for, and maybe it’s a hallucination that it’s not boots on the

[00:18:36] ground, that it’s sandals and sneakers and slippers that the Iranian people, based on,

[00:18:41] the problem is the 30,000 people that have been mowed down with the front lines, they were the

[00:18:45] Marines, they were the shock troops who were willing to risk their lives. So the reality is

[00:18:51] kind of what the off ramp will be or how this plays out, probably plays out in the next week

[00:18:55] in terms of the Iranian populace’s ability to foment change on the ground, because the American

[00:19:01] public does not have any appetite for boots on the ground. But what I talked to a senator this

[00:19:06] morning, I’m like, isn’t a reasonable off ramp that you would say, okay, we’re going to diminish

[00:19:10] their ability to wreak havoc to a 0.1. We’re going to control the skies. We’re going to diminish

[00:19:15] their Navy. We’re going to clear out their minesweepers from the Straits of Hormuz.

[00:19:19] We’re going to absolutely ensure there is zero capability nuclear, and then we’re going to-

[00:19:23] Which he said was obliterated in June. Just let’s point that out.

[00:19:26] Fair point. Again, more inconsistency. Why did we need to go back in to diminish their nuclear

[00:19:32] capacity when you said it was done seven months ago? So there is inconsistent messaging, but I

[00:19:38] think the offer- For lies, that’s called-

[00:19:39] In my opinion, the opportunity is here to diminish the capacity to continue to levy this depravity

[00:19:46] and oppression amongst its populace and potentially liberate one of the great cultures in civilization’s

[00:19:52] history that sits on unbelievable economic potential, economic prosperity. There is a

[00:19:57] real potential upside here. You know where else there’s a potential of upside is Ukraine. Same

[00:20:02] thing. Agreed. So what’s really interesting to hear is he yells at Europe for not pulling their

[00:20:07] fair share in defense. Fine. I can see that argument, even though he makes it in the crude

[00:20:12] and repulsive way. Why isn’t Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this? We’re doing their cop duty,

[00:20:20] and we happen to have a corrupt cop on the beat.

[00:20:22] Oh, Israel’s sacrifice.

[00:20:23] Israel’s sacrifice. I’m talking about you don’t hear the same language, right? If Saudi Arabia

[00:20:29] wanted this to happen, they should pay for it. If that’s really the thing, why do I have to pay,

[00:20:34] as an American taxpayer, $270 million for three planes? That kind of stuff. Why isn’t this money

[00:20:40] deployed elsewhere that I think is in our- Not me, I’m not running this show, but why isn’t Ukraine

[00:20:46] the same thing? That’s what’s really interesting, because there’s a country that is full of

[00:20:53] talk about economic opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus you on the toll on the US economy,

[00:20:59] because all these- Well, first of all, every attempt at regime change in the Mideast has failed

[00:21:04] almost miserably for the United States, or a version of regime change. Afghanists everywhere,

[00:21:10] everywhere we go.

[00:21:11] Well, to be fair, I did work in the Balkans. We have had successful interventions in Kuwait,

[00:21:16] we successfully repelled the difference there as we did it multilaterally, which-

[00:21:20] That’s right.

[00:21:20] … he’s stupid to do here. Already Britain, our closest ally, is humming and hawing about

[00:21:24] letting us use their airfields. He wants to go it alone, which is stupid. Anyway,

[00:21:28] I interrupted you talking about the economics here.

[00:21:30] So I want to know about the effect on the US economy, because one of the things,

[00:21:33] because when people start a war, it tends to be in the 60s period, right? It’s 25,

[00:21:40] and I get that the Democrats don’t like it, but 25 is a bad place to start when you’re doing a war,

[00:21:45] which, if you remember, remember the stud scud and everyone being vaguely excited when they were

[00:21:51] doing, I mean, even myself, which is grotesque, because I now have children. I’m like, oh, no,

[00:21:57] no, no. But talk about the toll on the economy, because every, and the MAGA people, Green,

[00:22:04] Carlson, even more heinous people, are talking about this is not what we voted for, right?

[00:22:12] This is not, and they’re trying very desperately to pretend it’s not an endless war. It’s whatever

[00:22:17] word they’re going to use is not going to work with these people. He’s already struck seven

[00:22:23] countries, seven events. He’s done more war. It was interesting because Hillary Clinton was so

[00:22:29] prescient about exactly what he would do here. He seems to like and have an appetite for military

[00:22:35] action because everything’s going so badly for him. So talk about the effect on the US economy,

[00:22:40] oil prices, right? Inflation, more danger for the US in terms of attacks on our own soil from the

[00:22:48] Iranians. I mean, if you back these Iranians into a corner, they may do something really dire here

[00:22:54] in this country. What is the toll in the US economy? And let me add in that people were using this

[00:23:00] word to cash in on online betting markets, which was repulsive. Kalshi reportedly saw $36 million

[00:23:06] in bet volume related to whether or not there will be a regime change in Iran. On Polymarket,

[00:23:10] 529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes, and some of them seem rather

[00:23:16] suspect. Polymarket defended its decision to allow betting on the start of the war, saying it’s

[00:23:20] invaluable source of news and answers. It feels like profiteering to me. But talk a little bit

[00:23:25] of the impact on the economy. What’s next if under, think of two scenarios. What’s next for the

[00:23:33] economy? Well, just to go in reverse order, I actually would argue that we have diminished,

[00:23:40] I mean, you have what was the superpower in the region with their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas,

[00:23:47] the Houthis wreaking havoc economically and in terms of oppression of different people in the

[00:23:53] region. And their organizing principle was death to Israel and death to America. And I would argue

[00:23:59] that even if we don’t have the regime change or a quote unquote liberated capitalist,

[00:24:05] West friendly Iran, that their ability to strike at us and our proxies overseas and our basis

[00:24:11] has actually been diminished. That they’re not now we need to be more worried. I think we need to

[00:24:16] actually be less worried. There are two scenarios here. One scenario is we end up in another forever

[00:24:22] war that explodes our deficits and we keep incrementally making excuses for trying to

[00:24:27] impose democracy, which is an oxymoron and oil prices, the straight of hormones gets blocked

[00:24:33] off and oil prices skyrocket. Now, to a certain extent, if you wanted to be really Machiavellian,

[00:24:39] that doesn’t hurt us that much because we are energy independent who this really is hurting

[00:24:43] both Venezuela and Iran is China. 80% of Iran’s oil was going to China, the same with Venezuela.

[00:24:50] So we can survive an oil shock, but you could have an increase in deficits of a

[00:24:57] forever war, disruption in supply chain, straining our relationships with the allies.

[00:25:04] I personally think there’s more asymmetric upside where we unlock

[00:25:09] stronger oil flows, better technology, a potential trading partner for Europe in the US.

[00:25:16] And I would argue, I would bet that I believe in six months that oil prices will be lower

[00:25:23] than they are today. Now, to your point about costs and economics, I am sympathetic to the

[00:25:28] left’s view, many people on the left, that these forever wars and foreign intervention and imperialist

[00:25:33] imposing our own values on other cultures and other nations is not only wrong, it is just really

[00:25:39] fucking expensive. I’m sympathetic to that. What I’m not sympathetic to-

[00:25:43] Can I make a correction? Charlie Kirk talked about this. The right, this has been an animating-

[00:25:49] Well, I was just about to get there, Kara. The right has a very strong isolationist bent.

[00:25:54] What is inconsistent for me, it is consistent to say, let’s focus on our problems domestically,

[00:26:00] let’s spend money domestically, let’s not run up deficits with tax cuts and forever wars in a macho

[00:26:05] military and let’s stay out of other people’s knitting, recognizing that we respect their

[00:26:11] right to do it, to govern themselves and shape their own future. What is totally inconsistent

[00:26:17] is the far right or the right’s isolationist rhetoric while approving a $1.1 trillion military

[00:26:24] budget. Because my view is the only rationale for having a $1.1 trillion military budget is,

[00:26:29] quite frankly, is if on a regular basis, you’re going to go on your toes. Because if we don’t

[00:26:35] want to get involved in this kind of foreign adventures or misadventures, whatever you want

[00:26:38] to characterize it, there’s no risk of Canada invading us. Let’s take our military budget down

[00:26:43] to $300 billion and pay off our deficit. So I’ve never understood the right’s fascination

[00:26:47] with ridiculous military spending and then this isolationist complexion. I personally think the

[00:26:53] upside over the medium and the long term here economically with a peaceful Middle East,

[00:26:57] once its primary sponsor of terror is neutered here, I think this over the medium and the long

[00:27:03] term could be really good for Europe. And if we could figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine,

[00:27:08] figure out a way to have a neutral West Iran, I think you’re going to see the largest tax cut

[00:27:15] in history because I think the flows of oil will cut oil probably in half. And you’ll have an

[00:27:20] incredible trading partner with what is one of the most productive capitalist in many ways societies

[00:27:26] in history. And that’s the Persian people. Yeah, that is true. I understand. One of the things

[00:27:32] that troubles me is one is that he really doesn’t seem to have a plan and he’s the president, right?

[00:27:38] And that people within his administration- He’ll call you and ask you for your plan.

[00:27:41] He’s going to. My plan is for you to step down, but then I would get JD Vance, but

[00:27:46] that’s my suggestion. And you should go off and spend all this money you’ve stolen from the

[00:27:51] American people. But one of the things that I think about a lot is that this is done in such

[00:28:00] a haphazard way without the involvement of Congress, right? That really is troublesome.

[00:28:05] And that these Republicans who are against these things immediately get in line. Now look,

[00:28:11] Lindsey Graham, that Southern belle has always been wanting to do this, right? And now he wants

[00:28:16] to go for- He is a Southern belle. And he’s wanted to do this. He wants to do Cuba next.

[00:28:23] Let’s do Cuba next, right? That’s the whole thing. This is all he just in his mistaken-

[00:28:29] Cuba isn’t blinding its women. It’s not hanging teenage girls and then sanctioning rape of them.

[00:28:34] He said Cuba. He did. And-

[00:28:36] Yeah, I agree. No, I’m saying that makes- In my opinion,

[00:28:39] as much as a war hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to invade Cuba.

[00:28:42] Well, I think that’s next. It seems like they’re just going to get bored over here and come over

[00:28:46] here. But this is something Lindsey Graham has wanted forever in his endless and sad attempt to

[00:28:51] be more masculine in some fashion. So fine. Fine, Lindsey. That’s fine. But one of the things that

[00:28:57] really drives me crazy is these people are so- They shift. These people say one thing one week

[00:29:03] and then shift it the next week. Look, I know you like to attack them, but they’re sticking to their

[00:29:08] guns on these kinds of things. They’re still- I’m sorry, I like to attack what?

[00:29:11] Oh, the left a lot. But the right just shifts it. It’s like we’re against it, we’re against it,

[00:29:15] we’re against it. Charlie Kirk said, let’s not be dragged into this by so-and-so. Let’s focus here.

[00:29:21] Okay, then let’s cut our military budget to 300 billion.

[00:29:24] I get it. I get it. But I just don’t see why they shift this way. It’s sad because

[00:29:31] I like when there’s argument over what we should do here in a way that everybody gets to.

[00:29:37] And it’s meant to be a discourse in the Congress. I agree with that. Barry Goldwater called us in

[00:29:43] the 70s. He said that we have become dangerously used to a slow leak of power from the coequal

[00:29:49] branches of government and Congress to the president. And what kept that mostly in check

[00:29:53] was a series of norms where the president would go and inform the Senate Intelligence Committee,

[00:29:58] or the people on the Defense Committee, that he would give them a heads up. He’d invite them

[00:30:03] to the White House and say, this is what we’re thinking, what do you think? Those norms are

[00:30:07] gone. And so there’s got to be, unless there is structural reform around what it means to

[00:30:11] have coequal branch, Republicans are resigning from Congress because they’re like, why the

[00:30:15] fuck am I here? Yeah, yeah.

[00:30:17] Well, I’m not even gonna- the Speaker of the House is not Mike Johnson. He’s the Speaker

[00:30:21] of the White House. He’s there to run roughshod over- people in the minority party are used to

[00:30:27] getting fucked over. They’re used to having no power. But Republicans are like, let me get this.

[00:30:32] I stuck around to be in the majority such that I could represent my people and get policies through,

[00:30:36] and I’m not even being consulted on that shit. No. And on the Democratic, I’d say, centrist

[00:30:41] conservative, I have never seen Senator Warner, who I consider pretty moderate, more than moderate.

[00:30:50] I think he’s often, we often disagree on a lot of stuff. He was incandescent,

[00:30:55] because he sees these things. He knows he has so much experience in Senate intelligence,

[00:31:00] et cetera, et cetera. And to watch people who had said the very opposite shift was really something

[00:31:06] because at the very bottom of this, it puts people’s lives at risk unnecessarily. And not

[00:31:13] just American troops, which is terrible. It’s people on the ground there, Iranian citizens,

[00:31:20] American troops. And I worry about American people attacking here. And it just creates

[00:31:27] a situation that when you- this guy’s got to have a better reason than to call someone and have a

[00:31:34] different reason every minute. And we’ll see its effect on the stock market. It’s not loving this

[00:31:39] at all. But we’ll see. We’ll see where it goes. So you brought up Kalshi.

[00:31:43] And what’s fascinating about these things is they tend to be right, that there’s a

[00:31:47] wisdom of the crowds. And when you have Senator Warner, who has just had a lot- this is not his

[00:31:54] first rodeo. He’s had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs come before him and explain their plans.

[00:32:01] And when you have Senator Mark Kelly, who’s actually flown these missions,

[00:32:06] if you don’t take advantage of the benefit of their insight, even if they don’t agree with you,

[00:32:12] you’re not taking advantage of the greatest depth, the greatest IP depth of knowledge

[00:32:16] and experience in military history. And that’s amongst, quite frankly, many of our members of

[00:32:21] Congress. If you’re not bringing Senator- Representative Seth Moulton in and saying,

[00:32:26] hey, when you were on the ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we’re consulting with a Senator from

[00:32:33] Florida, a former Fox TV host, and a reality game show host. They’re making these decisions?

[00:32:42] And the FBI is being run by a guy who likes to party in the middle of a possible terrorist

[00:32:48] action in this country.

[00:32:49] So they’re just going to make- and this is, I always like to try and reverse engineer

[00:32:55] to a personal learning here. One of my biggest flaws, biggest flaws as a man, is I thought that

[00:33:01] masculinity and leadership was making a quick survey of the situation and then making a decision,

[00:33:07] and then it was my job to talk everyone into my decision. No, it’s not. Leadership is

[00:33:12] listening and occasionally going, oh, fuck, I got it wrong. We need to switch course.

[00:33:19] I don’t make now- I didn’t learn this until I was literally 50. I don’t make a big decision

[00:33:24] personally, financially, professionally, without talking to three or four really fucking smart

[00:33:29] people, because you can’t read the label from inside of the bottle. And the US Congress

[00:33:34] is full of some of the most impressive, experienced, smartest people in the world.

[00:33:38] And beyond that, there’s people-

[00:33:40] And also, they have this incredible task of representing their constituency

[00:33:45] to not check in with them. I think Senator Warner is apoplectic because he’s like,

[00:33:50] for God’s sakes, we can save you from yourself.

[00:33:53] That’s right. That’s right. He wasn’t out of ego. I’ve never seen him do that. It was

[00:33:56] really interesting. Anyway, we have to move on. This is a developing story. We’ll see what happens.

[00:34:01] This seems like a very, as Gavin Newsom said, a chaotic White House that might be trying to

[00:34:07] get us away from the Epstein files or other issues at home. We didn’t even talk about

[00:34:11] the distraction, but we’ll go on a quick break when we come back. Trump targets Anthropic,

[00:34:15] another incredible tech company in what former Trump official calls attempted corporate murder.

[00:34:24] Support for the show comes from BetterHelp. This International Women’s Day, BetterHelp

[00:34:29] wants to remind all the mothers, grandmothers, aunts, and sisters of the world that you deserve

[00:34:33] to take care of yourself as much as you take care of people around you. If you want to help

[00:34:37] getting connected with a therapist, you could try BetterHelp. BetterHelp does the initial matching

[00:34:42] work so you can focus on your therapy goals. All you need to do is fill out a short questionnaire

[00:34:46] that helps identify your needs and preferences, and BetterHelp matches you with a licensed

[00:34:50] therapist operating under a strict code of conduct. After 12 years plus of experience,

[00:34:55] BetterHelp says they have an industry-leading match fulfillment rate. And if you aren’t happy

[00:34:58] with your match, you can switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored

[00:35:02] recommendations. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world’s largest online therapy

[00:35:07] platform, having served over 6 million people globally. And out of over 1.7 million client

[00:35:12] reviews, BetterHelp’s average rating is a 4.5 out of 5 for a live session. Your emotional well-being

[00:35:18] matters. Find support and feel lighter in therapy. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com slash

[00:35:24] pivot. That’s betterhelp.com slash pivot. Support for the show comes from Vanta. Risk and regulation.

[00:35:32] If you’re a business owner, you probably know that both are on the rise and your customers need to

[00:35:36] know your proof of security. But earning that trust can be expensive and time-consuming. Vanta says

[00:35:41] that’s the challenge they’re designed to solve. Vanta automates compliance to bring risk management

[00:35:45] and customer trust together on a single AI-powered platform. It helps companies achieve and maintain

[00:35:50] compliance across more than 35 security and privacy frameworks, including SOC 2, ISO 27001,

[00:35:56] and HIPAA. The result? Faster compliance, less manual work, and more time to focus on growth

[00:36:00] driving opportunities. So, if you’re tired of sifting through old audits and spreadsheets,

[00:36:04] you can get a system that’s always working in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk,

[00:36:08] and helping your business scale fast and with confidence. Vanta says that companies, including

[00:36:12] Ramp and Rider, spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta. That’s not just faster compliance,

[00:36:17] it’s more time for growth. You can get started at vanta.com slash pivot. That’s V-A-N-T-A dot

[00:36:23] com slash pivot. Vanta dot com slash pivot. Hey, Kara Swisher here. I want to let you know that

[00:36:34] Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast.

[00:36:41] Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of Today Explained, Teffy Talks,

[00:36:47] Prof G Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher. The

[00:36:53] stage will also feature sessions from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Kate Lee,

[00:36:59] Vivian Tu, and Robin Arzon. It’s all part of the Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest

[00:37:06] presented by Odoo. Visit Vox Media dot com slash S-X-S-W to pre-register and get your

[00:37:13] special discount on your innovation badge. That’s Vox Media dot com slash S-X-S-W to

[00:37:20] register. Really, you should register. We sell out and we hope to see you there.

[00:37:24] We’re back. President Trump ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic after it did

[00:37:36] not come to a deal with the Pentagon on safety. The Defense Department will phase out the use

[00:37:40] of Anthropic products over the next six months, which will, I will tell you, hurt national

[00:37:44] security. Anthropic plans to challenge the supply chain designation in court. Good for them. When

[00:37:48] it comes to the app store, Anthropic is winning. Claude is the number one spot in the Apple’s free

[00:37:52] apps as we tape. Anthropic also faced a major outage on Monday with the company saying it’s

[00:37:58] been dealing with, quote, unprecedented demand. Meanwhile, OpenAI, of course, ever the opportunist,

[00:38:04] OpenAI’s Sam Altman, reached an agreement with the Pentagon. The company claims it found a way

[00:38:09] to ensure its technologies would adhere to its safety principles by installing technical

[00:38:13] card bills. However, when Sam Altman was asked on whether he worried about there would be future

[00:38:17] disputes with the Pentagon or what’s legal, he responded, yes, I am. Oh, my God, Sam,

[00:38:22] I got to tell you, you need to stop talking. A former Trump official called

[00:38:26] Anthropic Order attempted corporate murder. It’s a backdrop of OpenAI raising $110 billion,

[00:38:32] its latest funding round, including $50 bi ll i o n f ro m A ma zo nan d$ 30 billion from both Nvidia and

[00:38:37] SoftBank and these continue round tripping kind of deals. I read a lot this weekend about this,

[00:38:44] and one of the people involved was a guy named Emil Michael, who used to be an executive at Uber,

[00:38:49] who was possibly one of the most bullying and awful executives and full of all manner of

[00:38:56] bad behaviors. When there, he left the company. We wrote some stories of the thing he was involved

[00:39:02] in that was just so not a good behavior, I would say. I have spent time with him. He was the one

[00:39:11] that was negotiating this, not a surprise. He kept calling Dario Amodi from Anthropic Godlike,

[00:39:20] God thinks he’s God or whatever. I’ve never met anyone who thinks he’s God more than Emil Michael,

[00:39:24] and he’s usually a toady to more powerful people, in this case, Pete Hegseth. Anyway,

[00:39:30] it seems a ridiculous overreach on the behalf of government. Probably Anthropic will win. I think

[00:39:36] it probably will benefit from this, as you’ve noted many times. Any more thoughts on this? I

[00:39:40] don’t think we’re any safer as a people for having done this.

[00:39:44] I think what people miss is that over the last 12 months out of 23 markets, we’re the 21st

[00:39:50] best performing or the third worst. What has changed? We’ve had incredible innovation.

[00:39:56] The Dow is up 50,000. Sorry.

[00:39:59] We still have credible innovation. We dominate the most tectonic shift in technology. The thing

[00:40:04] that’s changing is I believe we’re experiencing a rotation out of US stocks and a compression

[00:40:11] of multiples. The reason why is the following. The underpinnings of why so much capital flows

[00:40:17] into the US from every other market in the world is our incredible IP developed mostly through

[00:40:22] funding of research at universities, an incredibly risk aggressive culture based on immigrants who

[00:40:27] take huge risks to get here. Also, I think more than anything, probably, or chicken and egg,

[00:40:36] it attracts the deepest pools of capital in history. There’s $5 million in venture capital

[00:40:41] for every startup in the US. There’s only 1 million for every startup in Europe. Anthropic

[00:40:47] started six years ago. If it was in Europe, it’d be one of the 10 most valuable companies.

[00:40:51] But when governments start selectively punishing and rewarding companies based on political

[00:40:57] favoritism, that capital gets scared and starts withdrawing because why do you invest in

[00:41:04] OpenAI or Anthropic if you don’t know who you’re waking up next to in terms of its ability to

[00:41:09] raise capital based on the blood sugar level of whoever’s president? This is not only the

[00:41:15] wrong thing to do and makes us feel less safe and is probably illegal. It’s going to hit your 401k

[00:41:20] folks. Even in places like the Gulf that are run by autocracies, they have a real respect for

[00:41:27] systemic laws in the market because they recognize the moment they start fucking with companies based

[00:41:32] on their own who’s in or out of political favor, which has no stock market because nobody wants

[00:41:40] to invest and then find out the CEO got a call from the wrong person or got on the wrong list

[00:41:47] and is all of a sudden out of business. Even in China, people, I think they learned their

[00:41:54] lesson a little bit with Didi where they got angry at Didi and basically crushed Didi.

[00:41:59] They have a lot of respect for essentially regulatory bodies, consistent application of

[00:42:05] rule of law, trying not to play favorites. The immediate reaction will be, okay, they’re wrong,

[00:42:13] this is illegal, fine. Also from a commercial standpoint, I’ve been saying for the last year

[00:42:19] that someone has an incredible commercial opportunity to say enough. We’re the good guys,

[00:42:26] we do not buy into this. If this costs us money in the short term, fine, but the very American

[00:42:31] values that gave us so much opportunity are under attack and we’re just not down with it.

[00:42:36] I don’t know if you remember me saying this, I said six months ago, the biggest opportunity

[00:42:40] for Nike, which is trading at a 10-year low, was to run a bunch of ads saying,

[00:42:45] we’re about American values and what’s going on here is wrong. What’s interesting is corporate

[00:42:51] America needed a hero and it looks like it’s Dario. I know, it’s interesting.

[00:42:56] What’s really interesting here is I think, and it’s finally happening, they’re shaping up to be Joe

[00:43:01] Frazier and Muhammad Ali here and I think that Dario has been very smart and I think it’s up to

[00:43:07] us and the media or progressives, and I’m obviously stitching this into the risks and unsubscribe

[00:43:12] thinking, I think it’s time to start figuring out if there’s a way to be more commercially

[00:43:17] supportive of Anthropic and less supportive of OpenAI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to

[00:43:22] enable and be complicit in the Trump administration’s efforts and Dario and Anthropic have said,

[00:43:28] no, we’re not going along here, we’re not going to be intimidated. Quite frankly, Kara,

[00:43:32] I have been waiting for this matchup for a year.

[00:43:35] Yeah, I know you have. Let me say, I don’t know Dario Amodi, I don’t actually, and he might be

[00:43:40] arrogant, which is in line with most people in tech, that may be true, but I do know Emile Michael

[00:43:47] who did negotiate this and I do know David Sacks and both of them are Aryan operators, ceaseless

[00:43:54] bullies and unctuous toadies to the powerful, in my experience of covering them. Sam Altman is

[00:44:02] a little more complex, but he’s a gifted opportunist, which doesn’t make him that

[00:44:06] different from anybody in Silicon Valley and has made his choice here. He wants the business.

[00:44:17] Knowing the characters involved here and then on the top of it, you have an idiot, a moron,

[00:44:22] like Pete Hegseth, who doesn’t know what’s happening, communicating to someone who’s even

[00:44:27] more moronic on these issues, which is Donald Trump. I suspect Sacks is whispering in his ear

[00:44:34] and Emile Michael is whispering in Hegseth’s ear and this is all a Silicon Valley beef between

[00:44:40] and among these people. Emile had to leave Uber under not great circumstances, was pushed out.

[00:44:51] I think all these people is payback for other people. There’s a lot of Silicon

[00:44:55] Valley drama happening here and I don’t know Daru Amodi. I really don’t. It’s unusual that

[00:45:01] I don’t and I’ve asked for interviews with him. He has not agreed to do an interview with me.

[00:45:06] Thanks, Chris Nelty. He did a very good interview with CBS News, actually,

[00:45:14] which I thought was interesting. He handled himself really well. He

[00:45:18] starched his hat white in that interview. Yeah, it was a good interview,

[00:45:21] but one of the things that I know is the people on the other side of him are very

[00:45:29] people I covered for years who are just not good. How can I say this nicely?

[00:45:35] They’re the worst of the people I had to cover over the many years, I have to say. They’re

[00:45:40] literally the worst and to see them in these positions of power is making these decisions

[00:45:47] and hurting a company that just doesn’t want to do business with them. Actually, Michael tweeted

[00:45:52] out against Amodi weeks ago. It’s so unprofessional as a government. It’s such based in beefs that

[00:46:00] were happening elsewhere. I ended up having drinks with him after he was sort of drummed out at Uber

[00:46:07] and he said something to me. It was so strange. He goes, well, I’m so glad we can be friends.

[00:46:12] I remember saying to him, we’re not friends. I think what you did there is terrible. I don’t

[00:46:16] know where you operate, but let him just do what he wants and don’t bring your stupid,

[00:46:23] insecure beefs out on the thing. It will benefit Anthropic. It will. I think he’s handling himself

[00:46:29] and he may be arrogant. He may have a god comes. I don’t know. I don’t know,

[00:46:32] but he’s certainly not like these people. In that case, the bar is low. I’ve had my say.

[00:46:37] I think it’s a big opportunity. I think Americans and consumers are so ready to vote

[00:46:42] with their pocketbooks and Sam, I don’t think Sam has acquitted himself. Well,

[00:46:48] I’m not going to have advertising. We would never do porn. Well, I need to raise money. Never mind.

[00:46:54] The largest customer in the world, which is the US government needs to have a series of systemic

[00:46:59] laws that don’t, that these are the rules you get to play by in full stop. Everyone is entitled to

[00:47:05] and obligated to the same set of rules, not who you like or who you don’t like,

[00:47:10] and which kind of leads into our next story, which is Netflix and Paramount.

[00:47:15] Right. Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott, let’s take a quick break. When we come back,

[00:47:18] Netflix emerges as a winner after losing the Warner Brothers battle.

[00:47:29] So everyone knows our politics are divided. There’s left versus right and dividing lines on age,

[00:47:35] gender or race. But maybe our biggest divide in our politics isn’t about identity at all.

[00:47:41] It’s insiders versus outsiders. At least that’s what Congressman Ro Khanna would say.

[00:47:46] The real issue is two tiers of justice in America. The real issue is people with power and wealth

[00:47:52] using it to be above the law and escape even investigation or prosecution.

[00:47:57] And it’s only gotten more noticeable in recent months, as issues like the Epstein Files and

[00:48:02] artificial intelligence have seemed to pit the elites against everybody else.

[00:48:06] California Congressman Ro Khanna takes on the Epstein class.

[00:48:10] Today explained in your feed every weekday and now on Saturdays too.

[00:48:32] Hi, this is Kara Swisher. And this week on my podcast on with Kara Swisher, I talk to

[00:49:00] California Governor Gavin Newsom while he isn’t officially announced to run for president yet.

[00:49:05] He’s telegraphing it all the time. It’s exhausting. He’s also got a new book out,

[00:49:09] which is what you do when you’re running for president. It’s called Young Man in a Hurry.

[00:49:13] I recently interviewed him live in San Francisco. Have a listen.

[00:49:16] The problem with the Democratic Party so often is we appear weak and we’ve got to be stronger and

[00:49:22] we’ve got to be more assertive. And so that’s, you know, it’s the spirit I think that is required of

[00:49:27] this moment. I’ve known Gavin Newsom since he was mayor of San Francisco a million years ago,

[00:49:31] a million hair gels ago, and he’s a really interesting and compelling politician. He’s

[00:49:35] done a lot of things in his career. And this one, this run for presidency, which is going to happen

[00:49:41] is among the most interesting. You can find a full conversation wherever you get your podcast. And

[00:49:46] on YouTube, obviously, be sure to follow and subscribe to on with Kara Swisher for more.

[00:49:57] Scott, we’re back. Netflix may have lost the battle for Warner Brothers, but it’s looking

[00:50:01] like a winner. Boy, this is incredible. The company stock surged 14% of it formally exited

[00:50:06] the bidding war. It also now has $2.8 billion in the bank after Paramount paid the Warner Brothers

[00:50:10] breakup fee. When after the plan all along was to saddle Paramount with debt, drive up the price and

[00:50:15] walk away with more money, Ted Sarandos said there are easier ways to make $2.8 billion. Very funny.

[00:50:20] He’s also trashing it so beautifully. I have to say, what a pro the way like it’s ridiculously

[00:50:26] expensive. He’s dropping all sorts of bone bows in that Bloomberg interview you did.

[00:50:31] I’m hoping to do an interview with him relatively soon. He noted that Paramount deals dependent on

[00:50:36] cost cutting, leading to less production, less people working. He’s 100% right.

[00:50:40] On the Paramount front, CEO David Ellison, who got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt pilot in

[00:50:46] a speech, another thing, just announced that Paramount Plus and HBO Max will be combined

[00:50:50] into one streaming service. He also said there would be a lot of cuts, $6 billion in cuts that

[00:50:57] he can quickly deleverage it. Nobody believes him or thinks he’s capable of doing it. Sarandos had

[00:51:03] talked more about $16 billion. Let me just tell you, Hollywood, look out below. I don’t think

[00:51:11] Ellison means to be incorrect, but he is incorrect about what’s about to happen here because the

[00:51:15] pressures on this much debt. I talked to, as you know, Bill Cohen, because you weren’t around last

[00:51:20] weekend, but this much debt is enormous amounts of debt. It’s like crazy. They don’t have enough

[00:51:28] income. They have barely enough income, so they can’t grow. They have to cut. There is obvious

[00:51:34] duplication that they will cut, but even more than that. Anything they say at this point is just

[00:51:40] absolutely untrue. Again, I don’t think they mean it that way. I think they believe it,

[00:51:47] that they can turn shit into chicken salad, but most smart math people don’t think they can do it,

[00:51:58] especially with competitors like Netflix breathing down and YouTube breathing down their neck.

[00:52:02] Your thoughts? Well, I think I’ve been consistent on this. The biggest losers are the creative

[00:52:07] community. They don’t realize it. I don’t know, half a million of them just got

[00:52:12] lined up and shot. The amount of AI slop we’re going to see come out of Paramount and Warner

[00:52:20] trying to pass for great breakthrough content, it’s just going to be, like I said, in space,

[00:52:28] no one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me, you’re going to hear a lot of people scream.

[00:52:32] And the biggest winner hands down, and I told Ted this, I said, if you walk from this, you realize

[00:52:40] your stock’s going to go up 10%. I was wrong. In the last five days, the stock’s up 30%.

[00:52:47] Yeah, back to other levels. Yeah.

[00:52:48] Okay, so let’s look at it this way. They technically save $120 billion by not acquiring it,

[00:52:56] and their stock’s up $100 billion. Cara, they could go by Disney right now for walking from

[00:53:05] Warner Brothers. And if I were them and I was Ted and I’d be pissed off, I’d be firing up my

[00:53:11] lobbyists and my lawyers and I’d be like, delay an obviously, make it create so much havoc for

[00:53:16] this deal to close. And by the way, every studio, every crib, they’re all going to want to go to

[00:53:21] work for one place. Okay, do I want, if I’m pitching, I just had my latest book option for

[00:53:28] a series and for a documentary, which means absolutely nothing I’ve figured out in Hollywood.

[00:53:33] Your man, your notes on being a man? Yeah, for an original scripted series

[00:53:37] and a documentary. Anyways, think of it as an R-rated wonder years is how I’ve been pitching it.

[00:53:42] Who’s playing me? Herve Villaches.

[00:53:45] That’s very funny. Herve Villaches in a little tiny

[00:53:50] Subaru. With a puppy German shepherd.

[00:53:54] No, Chalamet can work. He looks like a teenage boy too.

[00:53:56] Anyways, so these guys, the amount of money, let me put it this way. Say you’re in the creative

[00:54:06] community and you have the hottest script or you’re the hottest actor and you have offers from

[00:54:13] the Paramount Studio, from Warner or for Netflix, who are you absolutely going to pick?

[00:54:18] Netflix. Oh my God.

[00:54:21] Every day of the week and twice on Sunday. HBO.

[00:54:24] They look like heroes. You all hated Netflix. Now you’re going to love them. And by the way,

[00:54:29] when the Democrats come into power, that’s going to be good for them too.

[00:54:32] HBO just lost 30% of its value because HBO’s asset was it always was able to punch above its

[00:54:38] weight class. It did 2 billion in content relative to Netflix’s 18 billion. But if there was a show

[00:54:43] people were talking about around the water cooler, whether it was Girls or Euphoria or

[00:54:48] Game of Thrones or Succession, it usually was HBO because HBO’s culture and ability

[00:54:54] when I’m talking a lot about me, my favorite subject, but when we pitched my Big Tech series,

[00:55:01] everybody, all the creatives and all the stars, they all wanted to go with HBO.

[00:55:05] They love Netflix, but if we had our choice, we would have gone with HBO. Guess what? That

[00:55:10] just changed overnight. Completely. I wouldn’t do a thing with them. I have to say I’ve got some

[00:55:15] shows. I have no interest. So they can figure out how to produce it for a third of the budget using

[00:55:20] AI? Yeah, fuck you. And also one of the things that’s interesting is that there is an interesting

[00:55:26] movement. And also, I mean, I think the CNN part of it is a smaller part of it. It still is going

[00:55:31] to be a lot of news, right? It’s still because it’s CNN, the merger. And they’ve already made

[00:55:36] a mess of CBS, but they’re going to make a bigger mess of CNN. I have heard from so many HBO people

[00:55:43] that are like, fuck. Like, fuck was everything in every, like, a dozen HBO people. CNN is losing

[00:55:50] its ever-loving mind, right? As they should. And they’re like, what do we do, Kara? And I’m like,

[00:55:56] I don’t know. I’m not going to be here. So it’s not like-

[00:55:58] Some stack, by task.

[00:56:00] I was like, I don’t know what to tell you, but I wouldn’t work for those hacks.

[00:56:04] But one of the things that’s interesting is the idea that Netflix takes a little bit of this money

[00:56:10] and hires, like, Anderson Cooper and the best of them, and creates a little news service. Like,

[00:56:17] they should. Like, a really good one.

[00:56:19] I talked to the woman who runs content at Netflix, and I said, I have an idea.

[00:56:22] Bella? Bella.

[00:56:23] Bella. Start something called The Hour and hire the two-thirds of the people from 60 Minutes that

[00:56:29] would like to leave right now, and have a show, a weekly show called The Hour, or 59 Minutes.

[00:56:35] I offer. I’m like, I’ll tell you who’s good and who’s not. I like-

[00:56:38] You don’t think all of those people are looking for a way to get off the-

[00:56:41] Yep.

[00:56:41] Get on the last helicopter out of Saigon right now?

[00:56:43] Yeah. And a lot of them want to be entrepreneurial. It’s really interesting. They do see the need to

[00:56:48] change out. I mean, obviously, the economics of a lot of broadcast and cable television is out of

[00:56:54] whack with the revenues, clearly, all through the industry, by the way.

[00:56:57] Netflix is up 30%. Netflix-

[00:57:00] Netflix should do that.

[00:57:01] The market has decided that Netflix is worth $100 billion more-

[00:57:05] More, by now.

[00:57:06] … without Warner Brothers.

[00:57:08] They could spend a very little amount of money putting together a really interesting news

[00:57:12] offering. At the same time, you know, as obviously CBS is going right in a really weak sauce way.

[00:57:19] It’s really kind of wimpy right and stupid right. But I mean, if you’re going to be right,

[00:57:24] go all the way to Fox. That’s my feeling. And it’s an ever-dying audience, by the way.

[00:57:30] And I mean, my mom is an average listener, essentially. She’s 92.

[00:57:34] But one of the things that I think will help-

[00:57:36] Fox is doing really well, actually.

[00:57:37] Yeah, it has. That’s right. You’re not catching Fox, by the way.

[00:57:40] Here’s a crazy stat. Supposedly, more moderates watch Fox than CNN right now.

[00:57:43] Well, I’m not surprised. It’s anyway- Because the news part is- I mean, like Jennifer,

[00:57:49] and there’s several people who are quite good over there. But

[00:57:52] there’s a lot of great people at CNN. Let me be clear. There’s a lot of great reporters

[00:57:56] throughout that organization, and they do a great job. People tend to focus on Scott Jennings at

[00:58:01] night when there’s lots of people. But- You mean, I feel stupider with Abby Phillips?

[00:58:06] Okay, stop. Stop. Scott Jennings is the problem over there. So-

[00:58:09] No, CNN is the problem for putting him on and having crossfire.

[00:58:12] That show is- But I’m saying there’s a lot more to CNN than that show.

[00:58:16] So it gets a lot of attention. But one of the things that I think is interesting is

[00:58:20] really opens up an opportunity for MS Now because they’re by themselves over there on the left.

[00:58:27] It’s a great business, right? It’s sort of like the Fox of the left. And so

[00:58:32] they have a huge opportunity. It seems to me- You are in love with traditional media. This is who

[00:58:38] it’s an opportunity for. It’s an opportunity- I’m saying a small opportunity for an opportunity.

[00:58:42] For Bill Cohen and Ben Thompson and Kara Swisher.

[00:58:47] I know that. You’re about to see a massive

[00:58:49] diffusion of power from these industrial brands. It’s already happened.

[00:58:52] But the means of production is way too expensive to all these little media company startups and

[00:58:56] stub stacks and podcasts. I agree.

[00:58:59] And newsletters and all this hand-wringing that, oh no, the Washington Post can’t go away.

[00:59:04] Doesn’t fucking matter, folks. Those people are going to find their own little niche media

[00:59:10] companies and they’re going to punch above their weight class and they’re not going to be saddled

[00:59:13] by the blood sugar level of a guy on human growth hormone in St. Barts.

[00:59:16] I get it. I just think MS now by itself being- I think CNN should have been independent,

[00:59:21] would have given an opportunity to be innovative. They have an opportunity to be innovative. They

[00:59:25] do. They absolutely do. And so that’s a good thing for them because they’re all by themselves

[00:59:30] over there. This is the best use of CNN. We have an iconic popular Gavin Newsom and he stacks his

[00:59:36] cabinet with CNN anchors. Dana Bash should make a great vice president.

[00:59:40] Yeah. Dana does a great job. There’s a lot of really great- There’s amazing people.

[00:59:44] Michael Smirconish, I think he could be Secretary of Defense.

[00:59:47] There’s a lot. Anderson, I think, does a good job. Every single- Caitlin Collins,

[00:59:51] I have so much admiration for her. She can be ambassador to the EU.

[00:59:56] Literally, I can pull together a cabinet that looks like the fucking Kennedy administration

[01:00:02] from CNN anchors. Well, and it would be so much higher than

[01:00:04] D-Dag Seth on any day of the week. Well, think about it. Janine Pirro,

[01:00:09] look who are competing. I am down for networks as cabinets at this point.

[01:00:14] I think the CNN people are so impressive, but they’re all about to, and they’ve been doing this

[01:00:20] last two years. I’m thinking about starting a podcast because they’re having the uncomfortable

[01:00:22] conversation where I used to make seven million a year and they’ve offered me two.

[01:00:25] Have you had every conversation with all of, not just CNN, it’s throughout the-

[01:00:29] No, it’s everywhere. It’s everywhere.

[01:00:30] It’s all the media people. I could have a business-

[01:00:33] People anchor off the most money they’ve ever made and think that’s what I’m worth.

[01:00:36] No one ever thinks to themselves, wow, I’m overpaid right now. I can prove to you statistically at any

[01:00:41] moment in time, there’s a 50% chance you are overpaid right now relative to the market.

[01:00:46] I’m not favoring media. I always see it as an opportunity. You can still do well.

[01:00:53] It’s a good business. It makes a lot of profits. You could do well here and it gives an opportunity

[01:00:59] for MS Now to have a lane all to itself. I think that’s always a good thing. Always a good thing.

[01:01:04] Who’s MS Now’s star? She’s only one day a week, though.

[01:01:06] Rachel. There’s a whole bunch of them. But let me say Rebecca Cutler, Stephanie,

[01:01:10] there’s a whole bunch of people over there that are great.

[01:01:12] They’re very talented.

[01:01:13] They’re hiring a lot of great reporters. Rebecca Cutler, who you don’t know about, is amazing.

[01:01:20] She hired me at CNN Plus.

[01:01:21] She did at The Plue. I think there’s lots of opportunity. I think the Ellisons will bollocks

[01:01:28] it. Coming to you soon to Kara Swisher’s docuseries. Kara Swisher wants to live forever on CNN.

[01:01:33] No, I’m kidding. That’s kind of nice.

[01:01:36] I just hope it closes before then so I can see a photo with you and Larry Ellison.

[01:01:40] No, it’s not. Listen, it’s going to be soon. I will be out. I’ll have removed my things from

[01:01:46] the closet long before then. I’m just so curious who they’re going to ask to run CNN.

[01:01:50] Let me just tell you, everybody, Scott Galloway is in the second episode and he’s looking fine.

[01:01:58] It’s an adorable Kara and Scott moment. That’ll save them. That’s their answer.

[01:02:04] It’s actually a really good show, I have to say. I’m very pleased.

[01:02:07] You have to say your show’s really good. You’re going to love this.

[01:02:10] I did a podcast today and they asked me what was my favorite moment with Kara Swisher. I said,

[01:02:16] when you and your wife came down for the weekend and I let you pick the streaming media thing we

[01:02:22] were going to watch, big fucking mistake. You picked some art heists from PBS. They’re like,

[01:02:27] the history of great museum deaths or something. I went, oh, fuck.

[01:02:31] We’re sitting there and we’re all eating and over comes White LeBron, your 14-year-old monster,

[01:02:39] and he sits down and I’m not exaggerating, we all popped eight inches into the air.

[01:02:45] He’s bigger than ever. Also, the next day, you were scolding him

[01:02:48] like a mother does and you were literally, your neck was craning so hard up at him.

[01:02:53] They listen to mama.

[01:02:55] It was like watching Billy Barty lecture Shaquille O’Neal. I said to my sons, I’m like,

[01:03:01] look at this. Look at this. Look what’s going on over there.

[01:03:03] Yeah.

[01:03:04] Anyways, that’s my favorite moment.

[01:03:05] Yeah, that’s right. I should parent everybody.

[01:03:08] I think you kind of do.

[01:03:09] Anyway, let’s go on a quick break when we come back wins and fails.

[01:03:17] After decapitation strikes against Iran’s leadership, what can we expect next in the

[01:03:21] escalating war? The big question is, if there is going to be a next strong man in Iran,

[01:03:28] what kind of strong man will that person likely be? I don’t think that there’s going to be another

[01:03:34] powerful cleric, supreme leader. I’m John Feiner.

[01:03:37] And I’m Jake Sullivan. And we’re the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.

[01:03:43] This week, we sit down with Karim Sajipour to discuss what to expect in this next phase

[01:03:47] of the war against Iran. The episode’s out now. Search for and follow

[01:03:52] The Long Game wherever you get your podcasts.

[01:03:59] Okay, Scott, let’s hear some wins and fails. I can go first.

[01:04:02] Go first.

[01:04:03] I have to say, I talked too much about Hidalrabbi, but I thought Connor’s story did a great job

[01:04:10] on SNL this week. I usually fall off.

[01:04:12] Oh, my God. That’s my win.

[01:04:13] What?

[01:04:14] That’s my win.

[01:04:15] You take it. You take it. Let’s discuss it. Go ahead. Go ahead. Take it.

[01:04:19] I feel that SNL thread. My win was SNL. I thought they thread the needle perfectly.

[01:04:26] This week. Yeah, not every week.

[01:04:28] They honored the women’s team, but at the same time, I think it’s bullshit all the shit the men

[01:04:34] have taken. I think for them to… Wouldn’t have been great if you listened to the video. This was

[01:04:39] President Trump taking everyone back to the 50s and mocking women. That is not what we need. We

[01:04:44] need a more evolved sense of masculinity that celebrates great athletic performance. By the way,

[01:04:48] eight of 12 medals from the women. The goal, the overtime goal, in my opinion, one of the great

[01:04:55] moments in sports history of the women’s hockey team. They threaded the needle perfectly,

[01:04:59] because I do think the men got more shit than they deserved.

[01:05:03] They got invaded by Cash Patel. Let’s blame Cash Patel.

[01:05:05] That’s exactly right. What are they going to do?

[01:05:09] I agree.

[01:05:09] Anyways, and if you listen to the tape, when Trump made those wildly sexist remarks,

[01:05:16] there were one or two men’s hockey players saying, two for two. They were trying to

[01:05:20] acknowledge that both the men’s and the women’s team, and SNL did it perfectly.

[01:05:25] They did.

[01:05:26] They didn’t virtue signal and say, yeah, women, and oh, that was bad males.

[01:05:30] They made some jokes. They had the women make the jokes, and the men were okay too.

[01:05:33] And the men were there to take it.

[01:05:34] Take it, yeah.

[01:05:35] And they were fine with it. They thread the needle perfectly.

[01:05:38] And it was critical that Connor’s story was standing in between them. I have to say,

[01:05:42] he’s such a likable person and such a talented physical comedian. His stripper who got in a car

[01:05:48] accident was so fucking funny. I don’t believe they pulled that one off. I have to say,

[01:05:55] he is such a delightful-

[01:05:56] He’s very talented.

[01:05:57] He’s a delightful figure. Both of them are.

[01:05:59] And I’m telling you, season two, like scorching hot rivalry with the women’s hockey team.

[01:06:05] Yes, exactly.

[01:06:05] Daddy’s here for it.

[01:06:06] Yes, yes. And I thought the women handled it well.

[01:06:09] So well done. The writers at SNL are geniuses.

[01:06:12] And you know who sucks? Cash fucking Patel. Why are you invading these guys’ win?

[01:06:18] In reflected fucking glory, you tubby loser. Forget it. How dare you?

[01:06:24] Now I’m focused only on Cash Patel. I really am. I think he’s just the worst.

[01:06:30] So my fail is, I think, this situation with Anthropic. I think it has to be-

[01:06:35] Okay, we’re the same person today. We’re literally the same person.

[01:06:38] Okay. All right. I think they are bullies. I think they use Twitter as a way to attack people in a

[01:06:45] way that’s really unprofessional. You can have differences. And everyone’s already always grabbing

[01:06:51] for power and grabbing for money. I get it. It’s gone on since the beginning of time.

[01:06:55] But the way you’re doing this is all about your insecure childhood traumas that are being writ

[01:07:00] large on the rest of us. This is not professional. You do not have to do this. And they do it as

[01:07:06] keyboard warriors on Twitter. I got a text from someone, I’m not going to say who it was,

[01:07:11] who said, the world is happening on Twitter. You got to be back here. And I was like,

[01:07:16] I’m not going back to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making children sexual. I was like,

[01:07:21] the world is not happening on Twitter. The world is happening in the world, you guys. You need to

[01:07:28] fucking get out of your own fucking way. You have to understand that what you’re doing is damaging

[01:07:36] to most people and that we don’t want to hear about all your beefs and all your traumas and

[01:07:42] everything else. If Anthropic doesn’t want to do business with you, just let’s move along.

[01:07:47] Let’s just move along. And I’m sorry you’re not as successful as Dario Amodi or smart Emile Michael,

[01:07:54] but you’re going to have to live with it as being an unctuous toady to the powerful. Stop it. That,

[01:08:00] to me, is the loss. You go ahead. Mine’s exactly the same, but I’ll look at it through a shareholder

[01:08:04] lens. I’m looking at a company called Mercado Libre, which is the Amazon of Argentina.

[01:08:09] And one of the reasons I’m looking at it is that effectively when the bricks were in vogue,

[01:08:15] the price earnings multiple of certain Latin American markets was about 20.

[01:08:19] And it went down to eight because all the flows went into US tech stocks,

[01:08:23] which meant you could increase your earnings two and a half fold over 10 years and your stock was

[01:08:30] flat. You can’t outrun multiple contraction in a market as a stock and it’s all under the same

[01:08:37] auspices of market dynamics, Trump individual performance. At the same time, it’s almost

[01:08:41] impossible to be wrong when you have multiple expansion. It has been American investors.

[01:08:46] We all think we’re geniuses right now in our 401ks. We have had multiple expansion since 2008

[01:08:51] and we’re about to experience multiple contraction and we’re already experiencing it. We were 21 out

[01:08:55] of 23 markets last year on a dollar adjusted basis. Everyone else outperformed us. And one

[01:09:00] of the reasons people don’t realize we have just lost trillions of dollars when the Pentagon starts

[01:09:05] picking winners and losers. If Anderle, which makes weapons decides that, yeah, we are going

[01:09:11] to figure out, we’re going to use Silicon Valley ethos to help the defense department kill people

[01:09:17] and people freak out. Well, guess what? They’re allowed to do that. It’s not illegal. They’re

[01:09:21] allowed to do that. When Palantir says, we’re going to work with the government of Israel to

[01:09:24] track down terrorists and kill them in their homes, that you may find that distasteful. It’s

[01:09:28] legal. They’re allowed to do it. And Anthropic, when they decide we don’t want to provide our

[01:09:34] services or data for what we feel is the surveilling, the illegal surveillance of U.S. citizens,

[01:09:39] they too are allowed to do that. And when governments start playing political favorites

[01:09:45] in markets, the rule of law is no longer applied and you’re multiple on companies,

[01:09:53] your price earnings multiple begins to contract. Freedoms and systemic laws and a separation

[01:09:59] between government and business results in higher price earnings multiples and greater increases

[01:10:04] in 401k’s and your ability to retire earlier. And this bullshit Pentagon stationary war on

[01:10:12] Anthropic is going to cost U.S. investors trillions of dollars as people decide to go

[01:10:19] where they know who they’re waking up next to, that they can invest in a company

[01:10:23] and they do the assessment based on the laws at hand. Is this company succeeding or failing

[01:10:28] based on the current laws? And they don’t have to try and guess what the one-off individual laws

[01:10:34] will be in a few months. So I have the same same win and same fail, but I look at it as an investor.

[01:10:41] I’m now looking at markets. People get angry at the autocracies and in China or in the Gulf.

[01:10:47] They have a huge respect for the domain or the sovereignty of investors and having uniform laws

[01:10:55] that apply to everyone equally. And we are now becoming that nation where we decide which

[01:11:00] companies win and lose. And all that means is RPE. We’re about to experience multiple

[01:11:04] contraction, which you cannot outrun. Not for long. Let me just say you feel it.

[01:11:09] Can’t you feel it? And speaking of feeling it, Scott, this has been a great discussion.

[01:11:12] I have to say, I was a little worried this morning. I was also tired, but this has been

[01:11:16] a really great discussion about these things and disagreeing in a really civil way.

[01:11:20] But let me say, it’s going to continue because we’re going, where are we going,

[01:11:24] Scott Galloway, on Sunday? Resist and unsubscribe. Big announcement,

[01:11:29] full-time resources. And by the way, Sam, it’s not going to be a good night for you.

[01:11:33] No, it’s not going to be. And guess which Sam we’re talking about.

[01:11:37] 48 hours, you put Kara Swisher on an invite, and 48 hours, we sold out the Pantages,

[01:11:43] both of us. We sold it out. And we want to thank Tain Danger for doing an amazing job for us in

[01:11:47] Minneapolis. He’s my favorite porn star.

[01:11:49] He’s your favorite porn star, and he’s an amazing-

[01:11:51] Tain Danger.

[01:11:52] And our staff who’s working really hard. We sold out right away. We are coming to Minneapolis.

[01:11:56] We have special guests. We are very excited. And we will talk about the next move. Scott,

[01:12:02] well, Scott, who’s the president of Resist and Unsubscribe. I’m just a helper.

[01:12:07] We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever’s on your mind.

[01:12:10] Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT.

[01:12:16] Okay, that’s the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to

[01:12:20] our YouTube channel. We’ll be back on Friday.

[01:12:22] Today’s show is produced by Lara Neyman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher.

[01:12:25] Ernie Intertide interviewed this episode. Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to

[01:12:29] Jabros, Ms. Savera, and Dan Sholan. Neshat Khouraz, Vox Media’s executive producer,

[01:12:33] podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for

[01:12:37] listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the

[01:12:40] magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We’ll be back later this week for another breakdown of all

[01:12:44] things tech and business care. Have a great rest of the week.

Vox

Explorador