Winging it in Iran
Summary
Sean Illing speaks with WALL Street Journal national security reporter Alexander WARD about the recent U.S. military strikes on Iran. The conversation begins by examining the shifting justifications for the attack, which started with promises of support for protesters in January, moved to failed nuclear diplomacy, and culminated in Trump’s decision to strike after the State of the Union address. Ward details the administration’s claims about an imminent Iranian threat, including potential ICBM development and plans for preemptive strikes, while noting the inconsistencies in these narratives.
The discussion then turns to the incoherent mission objectives, with Trump offering varying timelines and goals—from “freedom for the people of Iran” to potential deals within days or weeks. Ward compares this to Trump’s pattern of “shooting first” and figuring out political objectives later, drawing parallels to operations in Venezuela and previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The hosts explore the potential outcomes, ranging from a U.S.-friendly government emerging to all-out regional war or Iranian civil war.
Finally, Ward analyzes the broader implications, including the depletion of U.S. munitions stockpiles that could affect deterrence against China, the moral promise made to the Iranian people for a better future, and the administration’s apparent “break it and you handle it” approach that rejects the Powell Doctrine. The conversation concludes with considerations of what might follow the current regime, including the possibility of something worse taking its place, and the long-term consequences for U.S. credibility and regional stability.
Recommendations
People
- Greg Carlstrom — Economist reporter who tweeted about the incoherence of the U.S. mission objectives in Iran, highlighting how the goals keep shifting.
- Colin Powell — Former Secretary of State whose doctrine “if you break it, you own it” is contrasted with the current administration’s approach of creating a vacuum without taking responsibility.
Topic Timeline
- 00:01:47 — Rationale for the U.S. strike on Iran — Alexander Ward explains the shifting justifications for the attack, starting with Trump’s promises to protesters in January, followed by failed nuclear diplomacy, and culminating in the decision to strike. He notes the mixed messages about objectives and the administration’s claims about Iranian threats to Americans and allies.
- 00:04:20 — Evidence of imminent Iranian threat — Ward details the Trump administration’s briefing about evidence that Iran was seeking an ICBM, reconstituting its nuclear program, and considering preemptive strikes. He highlights the inconsistencies in these claims, including backtracking on whether Iran was planning to strike first or would only respond if Israel attacked.
- 00:06:42 — Contradictions about Iran’s nuclear capabilities — The discussion addresses contradictions between claims that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” in June strikes and current justifications for war. Ward explains that while Iran has enriched uranium, significant technical hurdles remain for weaponization, and much infrastructure was damaged in previous attacks.
- 00:12:26 — Steelmanning the political justification — Ward presents the best case for the attack: the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters (with estimates of thousands dead), refusal to abandon nuclear ambitions through diplomacy, and long-term threat to Americans. The argument is to strike while Iran is vulnerable rather than waiting until it’s stronger.
- 00:14:28 — Incoherent mission objectives and shifting goals — Ward highlights the administration’s inconsistent statements about objectives, with Trump variously promising “freedom for the Iranian people,” suggesting deals within days or weeks, and claiming to have candidates to take control—then saying those options were killed. This reflects Trump’s pattern of figuring out strategy after military action.
- 00:17:21 — Range of possible outcomes from the conflict — Ward outlines the spectrum of possibilities, from a U.S.-friendly semi-democratic government emerging to all-out regional war. He expresses uncertainty about the direction but notes history suggests worse outcomes are more likely, potentially including civil war in Iran or violent power struggles.
- 00:20:03 — What regional war would actually look like — The conversation explores what “regional war” means, with Iran already attacking Gulf states’ economic and tourist centers. Ward explains how this could escalate with responses from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others, potentially involving Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and drawing in European powers.
- 00:24:04 — Best and worst case scenarios for Iran’s future — Ward presents the optimistic scenario: regime collapse leads to a more cooperative government, reduced proxy warfare, and regional transformation. The more likely bad scenario involves Iranian civil war and state dissolution, causing destabilization across neighboring countries from Afghanistan to the Gulf.
- 00:28:55 — U.S. strategy of creating a vacuum without ownership — The discussion examines the administration’s apparent approach of decapitating the regime, creating a vacuum, and letting events unfold without American direction or responsibility. Ward contrasts this with the Powell Doctrine’s “if you break it, you own it” principle, noting the moral implications for Iran’s 90 million people.
- 00:33:45 — Broader geopolitical implications and munitions depletion — Ward discusses how the conflict depletes U.S. munitions stockpiles that are also needed for deterrence against China, particularly regarding Taiwan. He notes the contradiction of citing low stockpiles as reason not to arm Ukraine while burning through them in Iran, and the long rebuilding timelines for these resources.
Episode Info
- Podcast: The Gray Area with Sean Illing
- Author: Vox
- Category: Society & Culture Philosophy News Politics News Commentary
- Published: 2026-03-06T09:00:00Z
- Duration: 00:37:13
References
- URL PocketCasts: https://pocketcasts.com/podcast/1d3ce9a0-ae3d-0133-2e33-6dc413d6d41d/episode/d0cafb69-0e9d-47d4-a327-711ffdc45a2b/
- Episode UUID: d0cafb69-0e9d-47d4-a327-711ffdc45a2b
Podcast Info
- Name: The Gray Area with Sean Illing
- Type: episodic
- Site: https://www.vox.com/vox-conversations-podcast
- UUID: 1d3ce9a0-ae3d-0133-2e33-6dc413d6d41d
Transcript
[00:00:00] Welcome to the Gray Area Friday.
[00:00:20] My guest today is Alexander Ward, my friend, former Vox colleague, and now a national security
[00:00:28] reporter for the Wall Street Journal.
[00:00:30] Thanks for having me.
[00:00:32] True story, Alex is the first person I call or text whenever there is an international
[00:00:37] incident of any kind, and he always very patiently answers my questions.
[00:00:43] How are you, buddy?
[00:00:44] I am fine.
[00:00:45] I’ve definitely been more rested, but I’m fine.
[00:00:48] And when you ring, I answer.
[00:00:50] So I’m happy to do this for you.
[00:00:52] We really do sincerely appreciate you doing this on very short notice.
[00:00:56] Um, we are speaking on Monday afternoon, March 2nd, and it goes without saying that
[00:01:03] things are changing very quickly by the end of this taping, there may be a completely
[00:01:08] different situation on the ground, but probably during this taping.
[00:01:12] Yeah.
[00:01:12] And so look, all we can do is assess things as they are right now.
[00:01:16] And that is what we will do.
[00:01:18] This is not my beat.
[00:01:20] You know, I don’t fully understand the situation.
[00:01:22] I am like a lot of people.
[00:01:23] I am worried.
[00:01:24] I’m confused.
[00:01:25] I’m a little anxious.
[00:01:26] I’m angry.
[00:01:27] Um, you were here to walk me through it.
[00:01:29] So at the end, I can probably still be worried, but maybe, uh, at least informed.
[00:01:35] So what do you think about that?
[00:01:37] Happy to take our text chain into the, into the audio sphere.
[00:01:40] Let’s do this.
[00:01:42] All right.
[00:01:43] Before we get to where things are now, I just, let me just go back to the decision
[00:01:47] to strike Iran in the first place.
[00:01:51] Why did we do this?
[00:01:52] Why now?
[00:01:55] It is actually the.
[00:01:56] Multiplier.
[00:01:56] Multi-million dollar question, because I’m not sure I can even answer that question.
[00:01:59] I’m not even sure president Trump can answer that question, but let’s start with, uh, what
[00:02:04] the rationale that they now say is the rationale.
[00:02:09] We got to go back to January.
[00:02:11] It started when there were major protests against the regime and Trump promised quote
[00:02:16] unquote help is on its way.
[00:02:18] Now that help didn’t come, but what happened was in large part, because Trump was worried
[00:02:23] about what it could unleash.
[00:02:25] And also.
[00:02:26] There were allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel who said, Hey, you, the U S are
[00:02:31] not well positioned enough to protect us and your own troops.
[00:02:35] Should the Iranians retaliate to any strike.
[00:02:37] So what happens from those protests, the U S amasses a pretty large, what Trump would
[00:02:42] call it?
[00:02:42] Armada to carry strike groups, jet fighters, other, other, uh, warships off the coast of
[00:02:48] Iran.
[00:02:49] While the U S says to Iran, Hey, why don’t we negotiate the end of your nuclear program?
[00:02:55] And.
[00:02:56] And.
[00:02:56] And ballistic missile program and support for proxies, et cetera.
[00:02:59] And that goes on for quite some time while this, uh, Armada amasses.
[00:03:04] And we could talk about why it failed, but the diplomacy failed.
[00:03:08] And when it did on last Thursday, Trump basically went, okay, diplomatic route’s not going to
[00:03:14] work.
[00:03:14] So now it’s time to hit Iran.
[00:03:16] We hit Iran and then there’s a, and we’ll get into this, I’m sure, but there are all
[00:03:20] kinds of mixed messages about what we’re trying to accomplish.
[00:03:22] But to back to your point of why we did this.
[00:03:25] So initially start with the protest, then it was about the nuclear thing and that failed.
[00:03:29] And then the state of the union on Tuesday before the strikes, I should note, um, Trump
[00:03:33] was also like also mentioned the decades long fight between the U S and Iran.
[00:03:38] Like this is not out of nowhere.
[00:03:39] There’s been a pretty long shadow war if we want to call it that between the U S and Iran
[00:03:43] in which Iran has killed a lot of American service members and Americans, uh, themselves.
[00:03:48] And they were, you know, based on U S intelligence working on a nuclear program and they
[00:03:53] were trying to get an, an.
[00:03:55] Intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the U S.
[00:03:57] So Trump basically goes between the protester thing between, uh, the fact that they won’t
[00:04:03] go up their nuclear program, the fact that they are, could threaten Americans and have
[00:04:07] killed Americans game over regime.
[00:04:09] It’s time you’re out.
[00:04:11] Uh, but as I alluded to, to what end now that it remains a big question.
[00:04:17] Was there actually any evidence that there was an imminent threat?
[00:04:20] Has anyone even attempted to make the argument that there was an imminent urgent threat?
[00:04:25] Yes, the Trump administration has tried to, um, they actually did, uh, this would have been
[00:04:30] Saturday, uh, three Trump administration officials, pretty senior ones.
[00:04:35] I can’t say who, but they did a briefing for some reporters and they said, look, um, we,
[00:04:41] the Trump administration have evidence that they have made a decision to seek an ICBM,
[00:04:46] that, that intercontinental ballistic missile, uh, that they were trying to reconstitute
[00:04:50] their nuclear program and that they were weighing the idea.
[00:04:54] Uh, that they were trying to reconstitute their nuclear program.
[00:04:55] Of striking Americans before the U S hit them.
[00:04:58] So a preemptive strike.
[00:05:00] Okay.
[00:05:01] Now that, so at that point it was worth going ahead and, and hitting them before they hit the U S.
[00:05:08] I should note that after that briefing, uh, so basically 24 hours after that briefing,
[00:05:14] uh, times a flat circle.
[00:05:16] So on Sunday they brief, uh, members, excuse me, staffers of congressional staffers in which they,
[00:05:23] they were asked.
[00:05:24] So the Iranians were planning a preemptive strike on the U S.
[00:05:27] Wouldn’t that be basically suicidal for them?
[00:05:29] And they went, Oh, it’s not that they were planning one necessarily.
[00:05:32] It was just that if the Israelis had struck the Iranians first, then they would have hit us.
[00:05:38] So basically when we’re talking about imminent, I don’t think anyone is saying like they were
[00:05:44] going to attack Americans tomorrow, although they sort of did, I guess on that, that, uh,
[00:05:49] preemptive strike point, but they are saying they are going to strike America at some point.
[00:05:53] And it is not a preemptive strike.
[00:05:54] It is not prudent or wise to wait until they’re in a stronger position.
[00:05:58] So looming it’s coming.
[00:06:01] Um, they’ve, they’re hell bent on, on hurting America, uh, go after them now.
[00:06:05] I mean, you’ve heard Trump use language similar to the Iraq war, which was like, they are
[00:06:10] attacking civilization.
[00:06:11] You know, they, it’s kind of like, um, they hate our freedom, right.
[00:06:15] To make that parallel, um, that this was some, that this is a theocratic, um, but which it
[00:06:21] is a theocratic, like, uh, regime.
[00:06:24] Really trying to destroy America and Israel.
[00:06:26] And so it was, it, it, it, it times up.
[00:06:28] I guess it was last June, American Israel bombed Iran bombed nuclear facilities, and we were
[00:06:34] told they obliterated their capabilities or their facilities.
[00:06:39] Was that just complete bullshit?
[00:06:42] How did we go from being obliterated to, you know, a half a year later needing to start a
[00:06:48] war and decapitate the regime?
[00:06:51] So, um,
[00:06:53] a couple of things.
[00:06:56] One is I’m, I’m having a lot of, um, trouble with the administration when I bring up these
[00:07:01] issues.
[00:07:02] Cause basically for, for months, people were like, Hey, you guys said you obliterated the
[00:07:05] program.
[00:07:06] You know, there’s evidence that it’s heavily destroyed.
[00:07:09] Don’t get me wrong, but not obliterated.
[00:07:10] And they would get mad at you.
[00:07:12] And now we go, but you guys said it was obliterated and they go, well, what do you mean?
[00:07:16] Like they could still reconstitute.
[00:07:19] So there’s been a, there’s been a one 80 flip and who’s making which points, uh, since the
[00:07:23] war started, but to, to give the administration some credit, it is like, it is true that the
[00:07:29] Iranians have enriched uranium, you know, some, we don’t have to get into the technical purity
[00:07:34] levels, but point is if they, if they wanted to, and they have the ability to, they could
[00:07:39] potentially make the fuel necessary for a nuclear bomb within about a week.
[00:07:45] Right.
[00:07:45] But some major caveats here.
[00:07:47] Number one, do they have the centrifuges and things in order to make it, um, doesn’t seem
[00:07:52] likely because of the strikes.
[00:07:53] From last year.
[00:07:55] Uh, and on top of that, some of the fuel is literally still buried in a mountain and
[00:07:59] underneath the rubble.
[00:08:00] Number two, just cause you have the fuel you can make for a nuclear weapon does not mean
[00:08:05] you have a nuclear weapon.
[00:08:07] It means you have the fuel or you have the, the, the, the material, but you still have
[00:08:11] to make the bomb, miniaturize it, put it on top of missile and make sure that that missile
[00:08:14] can make it all go into the atmosphere, come down, you know, have a heat shield that survives
[00:08:19] re-entry and hit the exact target you want.
[00:08:22] That’s a lot.
[00:08:23] That’s a lot.
[00:08:23] That’s a lot, a lot, a lot of work and a lot of math.
[00:08:25] The North Koreans took decades to develop that.
[00:08:28] Um, and granted, I’m not saying then, you know, the Iranians are advanced enough that
[00:08:33] it wouldn’t take decades, but they, they’re not that close.
[00:08:36] You know, they, they could probably a couple of years away from having the missile, but
[00:08:40] then proving that they could hit America with it.
[00:08:42] That’s a whole other thing.
[00:08:43] Okay.
[00:08:44] Alex, let’s come back to this in a minute.
[00:08:45] We’ve got to do some commercials.
[00:08:47] Bills have to be paid.
[00:08:54] You’re interesting.
[00:08:55] We have weeks before this.
[00:08:58] Yeah, I want to get this show up for all of
[00:09:18] you.
[00:09:19] Yeah.
[00:09:20] Just, you know.
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[00:12:21] I’d like you to steel man for me
[00:12:26] the political justification for this attack.
[00:12:30] Not your case,
[00:12:32] but the best case you have heard
[00:12:34] from anyone involved in this
[00:12:36] on or off the record.
[00:12:39] In January, we should not discount
[00:12:41] the level of death and brutality
[00:12:44] that the regime exacted on those protesters.
[00:12:48] Estimates range from 6,000 to 30,000.
[00:12:51] 32,000 dead in about a 48, 72 hour period.
[00:12:55] It’s an astounding number.
[00:12:56] And I should say that 6,000 number
[00:12:58] is basically coming from like unofficial,
[00:13:00] you know, human rights groups.
[00:13:01] 32,000 is the Trump administration’s number.
[00:13:03] But I should know that that number has,
[00:13:06] is like not scoffed at
[00:13:08] when I talk to other people
[00:13:10] and from other countries.
[00:13:11] So it’s probably in the tens of thousands,
[00:13:14] but I can’t tell you that for sure.
[00:13:15] No one really can.
[00:13:16] The Iran regime says it’s much lower.
[00:13:18] Fine.
[00:13:19] But point is,
[00:13:20] protesters went out to demand,
[00:13:21] demand a better life.
[00:13:23] And they were met with death,
[00:13:26] destruction, brutality
[00:13:28] at a scale really not seen in decades.
[00:13:32] One could argue somewhat similar
[00:13:34] to when Bashar al-Assad
[00:13:36] waged war on his people.
[00:13:38] You know, no chemical weapons here
[00:13:40] as far as we know,
[00:13:40] but still truly brutal, truly deadly.
[00:13:43] And then add to that the fact
[00:13:45] that the Iranians aren’t going to get rid
[00:13:46] of their nuclear weapons through diplomacy.
[00:13:49] They would say,
[00:13:50] even though there wasn’t,
[00:13:51] you know, a nuclear deal in 2015.
[00:13:53] So what do you do with that?
[00:13:55] Right.
[00:13:56] These people would say,
[00:13:57] what are you going to just let this regime
[00:14:00] fester or to survive after what they’ve done,
[00:14:04] after what they might intend to do
[00:14:06] towards Americans and allies?
[00:14:07] You can’t.
[00:14:08] So you kind of hit them when they’re down, right?
[00:14:10] Military affairs ain’t a fair fight.
[00:14:13] No one wants a fair fight.
[00:14:14] And you’re not going to wait until Iran can,
[00:14:16] you know, better defend itself.
[00:14:18] No, you’re going to hit them when they’re down.
[00:14:19] And they are down.
[00:14:20] And so, you know,
[00:14:21] the bill has come due.
[00:14:23] I want to go back to the actual mission objective here.
[00:14:28] And I want to give credit to the Economist reporter,
[00:14:30] Greg Karlstrom, who tweeted this out.
[00:14:34] And he was spotlighting the incoherence
[00:14:38] and how the goals keep moving, right?
[00:14:41] And this is just in the last couple of days, apparently.
[00:14:44] And again, this is Monday, March 2nd.
[00:14:46] So basically over the weekend,
[00:14:49] Trump has told the world,
[00:14:51] the Washington Post,
[00:14:52] that the aim is, quote,
[00:14:53] freedom for the people of Iran.
[00:14:56] Axios got a quote from him saying,
[00:14:58] maybe we can end it in two or three days with a deal.
[00:15:01] He told the New York Times,
[00:15:03] eh, might be four to five weeks.
[00:15:05] I have three very good choices
[00:15:07] of people who might take control in Iran.
[00:15:10] And then, of course, he told ABC shortly thereafter,
[00:15:14] nevermind, we killed those potential options
[00:15:17] to take over power.
[00:15:20] I don’t know what to do with that.
[00:15:21] It’s wartime jazz.
[00:15:24] I mean, it is.
[00:15:29] Again, I’m really not trying to be like,
[00:15:31] I’m not saying this is like a point to stick it to Trump.
[00:15:33] I’m saying I’m not sure he knows what he wants yet.
[00:15:37] If there’s one thing we’ve seen from Trump
[00:15:38] in these kinds of conflicts is that he, you know,
[00:15:40] shoots first, he’s told, you know,
[00:15:42] we can achieve these kinds of military objectives.
[00:15:44] And then the political slash strategic objectives,
[00:15:46] he kind of figures out as he watches things unfold.
[00:15:49] Like, actually, let’s go back to Operation
[00:15:51] Midnight Hammer, the attack that took out
[00:15:53] those three Iranian nuclear sites last June.
[00:15:56] Recall that the Israelis struck the Iranians first
[00:15:59] and Trump tried to stop the Israelis from doing so.
[00:16:02] But once he saw that the Israelis were having
[00:16:03] tons of success, he wanted to jump in.
[00:16:06] And then they created this plan to go after
[00:16:08] those three nuclear sites.
[00:16:09] And it was a roaring success.
[00:16:11] And he got to say it was obliterated.
[00:16:12] And he found out, you know, he got to feel good.
[00:16:16] And it did a big thing, which was to destroy
[00:16:19] major elements of Iran’s nuclear system.
[00:16:21] And it did a big thing, which was to destroy
[00:16:21] major elements of Iran’s nuclear system.
[00:16:21] And it did a big thing, which was to destroy
[00:16:21] major elements of Iran’s nuclear work and set it back
[00:16:22] by quite a bit.
[00:16:23] Fast forward to Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.
[00:16:26] Massive operation removes him.
[00:16:28] They get Delcy Rodriguez, who was his number two,
[00:16:30] to kind of be, you know, puppet might be too strong,
[00:16:32] but surely someone the U.S. can work with quite closely.
[00:16:34] And he’s gone, great, this thing works.
[00:16:37] Right?
[00:16:38] So here we go.
[00:16:39] So he’s being pushed by folks that, you know,
[00:16:43] Iran is bad.
[00:16:45] They’re not making a deal.
[00:16:46] Go in.
[00:16:47] And he’s feeling himself.
[00:16:48] So great.
[00:16:48] We’re going to shoot.
[00:16:49] We’re going to take out a whole bunch of stuff
[00:16:51] to do.
[00:16:51] Despite he was warned by a bunch of people about
[00:16:53] American casualties and, you know, the ability of
[00:16:55] what could what could come of it.
[00:16:57] And now he’s going, OK, well, now that I’ve taken
[00:17:00] out the supreme leader, now that I’ve hurt a lot
[00:17:03] of elements of the regime and taken out a lot of,
[00:17:05] you know, looming slash imminent threats, however
[00:17:08] you want to look at it to the U.S., now what?
[00:17:11] And this is the part they’re figuring out.
[00:17:12] And they’re, you know, they’re building this
[00:17:14] plane as they’re flying it.
[00:17:15] People are freaking out.
[00:17:16] I’m freaked out.
[00:17:17] How freaked out should I be?
[00:17:19] How freaked out are you?
[00:17:21] It’s way too early to know.
[00:17:24] I mean, I wish I could give you more answers, right?
[00:17:27] It’s so I’ve been reporting on this war since, you know,
[00:17:31] basically one hour after it started.
[00:17:33] And I can say the most certainty I can tell you is
[00:17:37] that the range of options from this exact moment is
[00:17:40] that on one end, Iran has a U.S.-friendly, perhaps
[00:17:45] semi-democratic government that works with the U.S.
[00:17:50] to all-out regional war in the Middle East.
[00:17:55] And I cannot tell you with any level of confidence
[00:17:57] which way we’re headed.
[00:17:59] History indicates that we’re probably headed on the
[00:18:01] bad, worse end of that spectrum.
[00:18:03] Now, does that mean all-out Middle East war?
[00:18:06] I don’t know.
[00:18:06] It could mean civil war in Iran.
[00:18:07] It could mean a violent struggle for power within
[00:18:12] the capital.
[00:18:14] It could mean a whole bunch of things.
[00:18:16] But what’s interesting is that obviously there’s
[00:18:18] no appetite within the Trump administration or,
[00:18:20] you know, there’s no appetite within the Trump administration.
[00:18:20] The American public, and I presume with a lot of
[00:18:22] listeners here, for an American intervention, for
[00:18:24] a long-term campaign that sends the American sons
[00:18:29] and daughters into the country to try to set events.
[00:18:32] In which case, you know, what we’re really doing
[00:18:34] right now is we’re breaking the place.
[00:18:36] You know, we’re hitting a whole bunch of things,
[00:18:38] and we’re breaking stuff, and we’re not willing
[00:18:41] to build anything.
[00:18:42] And so that just, now to say just because America
[00:18:45] is there doesn’t mean we build stuff in our way.
[00:18:48] We’ve seen Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam and
[00:18:50] elsewhere.
[00:18:50] We’ve seen Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam and
[00:18:50] elsewhere.
[00:18:51] But our ability to actually dictate events is even
[00:18:54] less now because we’re not there.
[00:18:56] So we’re just bombing stuff, and then whatever
[00:18:59] happens, happens.
[00:18:59] And in fact, Trump’s been pretty explicit on this
[00:19:01] point, right?
[00:19:02] What did he say when he was announcing the strike?
[00:19:06] You know, I’m not going to do the accent.
[00:19:08] I could do the voice, but.
[00:19:09] Do it.
[00:19:11] All right.
[00:19:14] Well, I mean, what did he say?
[00:19:16] He basically said, like, we’re going to strike.
[00:19:19] This is your greatest moment.
[00:19:20] This is your greatest moment forever.
[00:19:21] Like, get out there.
[00:19:22] See how you can do.
[00:19:24] We’ll, you know, we’ll support you.
[00:19:26] And, like, see how you do.
[00:19:27] Like, this is your greatest chance.
[00:19:28] So it was basically like, we bomb, you decide.
[00:19:32] Or we bomb, you coup.
[00:19:34] Like, that’s kind of the strategy here.
[00:19:36] We have to take a break real quick.
[00:19:38] We’ll be right back.
[00:19:38] We’ll be right back.
[00:19:38] Let me go back to what you said a second ago about, I guess, I’m not sure if it’s the worst case scenario, but one of the one of the bad ways this could go, which is an all out regional war.
[00:20:03] Now, what does that actually mean?
[00:20:05] Right.
[00:20:05] It seems like there’s always shit popping off in this part of the world.
[00:20:08] There’s there’s terror incidents and there’s there’s there’s bombing campaigns and various skirmishes here and there.
[00:20:14] When you say regional war, do you actually mean an all out hot war involving, you know, entire nation states?
[00:20:23] I mean, at this point, we already have Iranian shooting at multiple Middle Eastern countries, Middle East, those countries, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, many of them.
[00:20:35] And they might shoot back.
[00:20:37] But are those are those faces?
[00:20:38] Are they saving strikes or are they serious, serious strikes designed to inflict maximal harm?
[00:20:44] Yes and yes.
[00:20:45] They have to respond.
[00:20:46] And they’re hitting serious things.
[00:20:47] They’re hitting liquid.
[00:20:49] You know, they’re hitting energy locations.
[00:20:51] They’re hitting tourist hotspots.
[00:20:53] I mean, not to go too deep into like Gulf politics, but if you are the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia or, you know, Bahrain or these kinds of countries, Qatar, one of the things you’ve been arguing for years is, hey, we know the Middle.
[00:21:08] At least there’s been chaos around.
[00:21:10] But these are stable countries that are safe.
[00:21:14] You know, you can build a Dubai.
[00:21:15] You can build an Abu Dhabi.
[00:21:16] You can build a Doha.
[00:21:17] Like there was just a World Cup in Doha.
[00:21:19] Right.
[00:21:19] And Qatar.
[00:21:21] Dubai is a major international city now.
[00:21:24] Now Iran is attacking those places.
[00:21:26] And if you’re a multinational corporation, are you going to think twice about investing in those areas or perhaps doing business there?
[00:21:32] So that’s what the Iranians are going after.
[00:21:34] Their tourism and their economy.
[00:21:36] And, of course, their energy producing areas.
[00:21:38] So that’s of direct interest to those countries.
[00:21:41] So you can assume that they’re going to strike back.
[00:21:44] OK.
[00:21:44] So you’ve got that dynamic going.
[00:21:47] You’ve got Iranian proxies that are still around, like, let’s say, the Houthis in Yemen or certain groups like Khatib Hezbollah and others in Iraq or Hezbollah itself in Lebanon.
[00:21:59] You know, they might want to get involved.
[00:22:01] And we’ve seen Lebanon try to stop Hezbollah from doing it.
[00:22:04] But we’ve already seen Israel hit Lebanon over it.
[00:22:07] So this is expansion.
[00:22:08] This is expanded already.
[00:22:09] Right.
[00:22:10] So this started within 72 hours or so of this war.
[00:22:14] This is already expanded to multiple countries.
[00:22:16] And it’s gotten to the point that you have the U.S. and Gulf and Middle Eastern countries give a joint statement being like, hey, we’re going to defend ourselves if you, the Iranians, keep doing this.
[00:22:24] And you’ve got the Europeans who were initially resistant.
[00:22:28] Right.
[00:22:28] Like the U.K. and France and Germany now being like, we might get involved, too.
[00:22:32] Now, how they get involved, that could just be letting the U.S. use their bases or they might actually do operations themselves.
[00:22:38] We shall see.
[00:22:38] Yeah.
[00:22:38] I think the French are sending an aircraft carrier to the region.
[00:22:43] So, like, I should note, the Iranians kind of messed up here initially.
[00:22:47] Right.
[00:22:47] However you think of the reason for the U.S. going to war or whatnot.
[00:22:50] The Iranians went all out.
[00:22:52] They pretty feckless response, all things considered, you know, based on their missiles and their drones or whatnot.
[00:22:58] But they’re not not doing damage.
[00:23:00] They’re doing quite a bit of damage.
[00:23:01] And it’s really angering a lot of the region and a lot of U.S. allies to the point that, like, right now, Iran is isolated.
[00:23:08] And the U.S. is starting to gain some backing for this.
[00:23:12] Okay.
[00:23:12] So, big, big, big, big picture for someone like me who does not really understand this region.
[00:23:20] How might this really change the dynamics?
[00:23:24] Maybe not just in the region, but the world, really.
[00:23:27] I mean, do you see the potential for this, for, like, a cascade of events to unfold such that this really does change the world in some measurable way?
[00:23:38] I mean, the world is for sure changed.
[00:23:40] I mean, the U.S. has now struck Tehran for the first time ever.
[00:23:45] So, like, this is a new front in the way the U.S. does war.
[00:23:48] But let’s go with, like, the very rosy potentially best case scenario because I’m, you know, let’s not talk all doom and gloom here.
[00:23:56] However you think of this operation or how it started, like, we’re here now.
[00:24:00] So, what’s to follow?
[00:24:04] Well, here’s the potential best case scenario.
[00:24:06] The regime falls.
[00:24:08] It cracks.
[00:24:09] It actually, you know, allows for reforms.
[00:24:12] It might not be a small-D democratic regime, but it might be one that the U.S. and its partners can work with, one that is certainly not endangering the U.S. and its allies.
[00:24:24] That then, you know, makes it so those proxies that have been disrupting societies throughout that region in Yemen and Iraq and Syria and Lebanon,
[00:24:35] they are now able to sort of—
[00:24:38] continue and do their own politics without Iranian interference, let’s say.
[00:24:43] And the Iranian people, who we should not take out of this, it’s 90 million or so people, they perhaps, even if it’s still very complicated and very rocky, it’s maybe—it’s preferable to what they’re living under.
[00:24:57] And the Middle East becomes more transformed, more peaceful overall.
[00:25:00] And who knows?
[00:25:01] You might see some normalization between Israel and a bunch of—more normalization between Israel and a bunch of other countries.
[00:25:07] And in Iran, that—
[00:25:08] That no longer destabilizes the region as it has for decades.
[00:25:13] That’s the good—that’s the good scenario.
[00:25:17] The bad one?
[00:25:21] Let’s take what I would—I would say, one man’s opinion, is the more likely of the bad scenarios.
[00:25:26] All-out regional war that’s basically like a World War III, like, I wouldn’t—I can’t discount it.
[00:25:31] I don’t think we’re headed there.
[00:25:33] Okay.
[00:25:33] I think what’s more likely is an Iranian civil war.
[00:25:36] And the dissolution of that—
[00:25:38] That country of 90 million people.
[00:25:39] What would that actually mean?
[00:25:40] Again, 92 million people.
[00:25:42] It’s an incredibly large, diverse country, incredibly sophisticated and modern in lots of ways, a lot of different factions.
[00:25:49] I mean, I want to ask what’s going on on the ground there right now.
[00:25:51] But again, in 24 hours, it might look completely different.
[00:25:56] But to that broader point, like, what do you—what are the major factions on the ground?
[00:26:01] Like, how is this fight going to be playing out inside of Iran moving forward?
[00:26:05] So one of the things we need to foreground here is—
[00:26:08] I’m sure there will be some listeners who have already heard the Trump administration say, well, we could do the Venezuela play.
[00:26:14] Right.
[00:26:14] Right, which would—which was remove Nicolas Maduro, his number two.
[00:26:19] Delcy Rodriguez seems to be kind of pliant.
[00:26:20] And even though she’s not pro-American, necessarily, we can work with her.
[00:26:24] And the U.S. can achieve its interests.
[00:26:25] Okay.
[00:26:26] That seems to be, like, something that’s in the back of Trump’s mind.
[00:26:29] The chances of that happening in Iran are very slim, not impossible, but very slim.
[00:26:34] And the reason is as—
[00:26:36] the Iranian revolution has been an entrenched thing since 1979.
[00:26:42] There are a lot of people who stand to benefit from it.
[00:26:46] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is a, you know, paramilitary group in the country,
[00:26:52] but basically part of the government, has become a major economic force within the country.
[00:26:57] Like, you can’t really do a lot of major shipping and a lot of major economic deals without their say-so.
[00:27:01] Right.
[00:27:03] So, yes, Khamenei’s dead.
[00:27:05] And a lot of his—
[00:27:06] Right.
[00:27:06] Right.
[00:27:06] A lot of his deputies are dead and will be killed now or will be killed later.
[00:27:10] Do these people that have benefited from this setup for decades willingly give it up?
[00:27:17] I mean, maybe.
[00:27:19] Trump seems to be betting on that.
[00:27:20] He’s told the New York Times they might just, like, hand the guns over to the people.
[00:27:23] How often does that happen, Alex?
[00:27:25] I ain’t ever seen it.
[00:27:26] And I’ll tell you, scholars of coups and regime change go, it rarely happens with an air war alone.
[00:27:34] Right?
[00:27:35] Which we are doing.
[00:27:36] That’s the thinking here.
[00:27:38] So, OK.
[00:27:42] Say, though, say they don’t hand the guns over to the people, which I think we would all agree is probably the more likely option that they don’t do that.
[00:27:50] Well, then you could imagine another major brutal crackdown like we saw in January.
[00:27:53] But you could also see as the state starts collapsing, because it is weaker now than it was before this whole thing started.
[00:27:58] You could see the Kurds in Iran try to break away and create greater Kurdistan, which a similar dynamic happening in Iraq.
[00:28:06] You could see Azeris, you know, who don’t maybe try to do their own thing.
[00:28:10] And you could see a bunch of little cities maybe become little fiefdoms.
[00:28:15] But basically, you would see a centralized, just to put it simply, centralized state control in that large country, roughly three times larger than Iraq, fall apart.
[00:28:23] And it doesn’t usually go well when those things happen.
[00:28:27] And Iran is in, like, the heart of the region here.
[00:28:30] So you could see destabilization in places, you know, from Afghanistan to Iraq.
[00:28:36] To Syria, to the Gulf area.
[00:28:39] I mean, it’s not a small thing if Iran, however you think of that regime, if it just kind of all that structure, as evil and as odious as it was, goes away.
[00:28:49] So the administration is saying, repeatedly, we’re not doing regime change.
[00:28:55] Okay.
[00:28:57] Certainly, you could argue decapitating the political leaders of a country is a regime change.
[00:29:03] But okay, set that aside.
[00:29:05] Does that mean?
[00:29:05] We’re going to create a vacuum and then just let it play out?
[00:29:10] Are we supporting certain factions?
[00:29:13] Do we have a dog in this fight?
[00:29:15] Or is the plan such as it is to create the vacuum, step away, and let it unfold?
[00:29:24] That.
[00:29:24] I mean, Trump said that explicitly.
[00:29:26] Great.
[00:29:26] I mean, Trump and the people around him, when I talk to them, they go, look, we’re basically opening the space.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] Right.
[00:29:35] There’s plenty of people to dictate their future.
[00:29:38] And if it goes awry, we give them the shot.
[00:29:41] Not our problem.
[00:29:43] It feels callous and immoral, again, for a country of 90, 92 million people to just basically go, we’re going to break it.
[00:29:53] Hope you can rebuild it.
[00:29:56] And we’re not going to – we will help you rebuild it in the background by, you know, maybe we’ll strike again or whatever.
[00:30:04] But, of course, in January –
[00:30:05] where Trump made that promise and he didn’t follow through until now this. Colin Powell,
[00:30:09] who was secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, basically said, if you break
[00:30:13] it, you own it. Right. The Trump team does not buy that. They are not doing the Powell doctrine. In
[00:30:17] fact, you know, basically barely doing a sales job of of why we’re in this in the first place.
[00:30:23] They are basically saying we break it. You handle it. Could work out. You know, I don’t want to
[00:30:29] discount that possibility. Like, again, where I will reiterate at this early stage, we are
[00:30:35] everywhere from like things work out super well to regional instability on a level we haven’t seen
[00:30:40] in decades. All things are possible. But what I think is more likely is it tends towards chaos
[00:30:47] because, you know, you’re going to see either a power vacuum or a struggle for power where those
[00:30:55] entrenched elites and authorities hurt a lot of people, kill a lot of people to stay there.
[00:31:01] And we cannot discount. I should note another possibility of all this
[00:31:04] is we.
[00:31:05] We’ve been talking about how bad the Iranian regime is, and I don’t want to discount that
[00:31:08] they are very, very, very bad. Right. But it’s not impossible. Something worse takes its place.
[00:31:17] It can always get worse. It can always get worse.
[00:31:20] It can always get worse. And sometimes what follows autocracy isn’t democracy, but chaos.
[00:31:24] But it could also be more autocracy. Right. And so one of those Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
[00:31:29] members, one could imagine they got the guns, they got the money, they got the power. They’re
[00:31:35] a lot of people to stay there. And because they’re new and not legitimate, they’re going to do a lot
[00:31:40] more repression just to stay there. Now, I’m not one to judge if it’s meaningfully worse
[00:31:48] necessarily than than under Khamenei or that revolution, but it could get worse. It could
[00:31:54] get slightly better. But the hope of all of this. Right. And this is where we need to get into the
[00:31:58] moral aspect of it. Trump has now basically ignited millions of people into believing,
[00:32:05] that something better is going to come and that America has their back.
[00:32:09] And we said this in January and he’s saying it now. That’s the promise he’s making. Again,
[00:32:15] whether or not you agree with this war, how it’s been conducted, what the goals are,
[00:32:19] such as they are, the underlying thing of all of this is America is telling a lot of Iranian people,
[00:32:25] we want you to have a better future and we’re willing for our sons and daughters in the U.S.
[00:32:30] to die and we’re willing to cause a lot of destruction for you guys to have a better life.
[00:32:35] And if Trump abandons them or if Trump ushers in something akin, slightly better or even worse,
[00:32:44] it’s a major betrayal of a population that we should note writ large is usually pro-American.
[00:32:50] Yeah. And very young too, right? It’s a very young country.
[00:32:54] Young country, sophisticated, technologically advanced. Like there’s a lot of smart,
[00:32:59] lovely people over there. That is the promise of all of this.
[00:33:05] Again, whether you agree with it or not, there is an underlying promise of America is here now
[00:33:10] to rid you of an odious regime and to make your lives better.
[00:33:17] So Trump has to follow through on that. Otherwise, I mean, boy, his legacy takes a hit,
[00:33:23] not just with Iranians, but around the world and frankly, the American legacy takes and reputation
[00:33:29] takes a hit. So what is someone like you watching for as this thing keeps unfolding? Like what are
[00:33:34] the subtle things that might be a little bit more important to you? Like what are the subtle things
[00:33:34] that might be a little bit more important to you? Like what are the subtle things that might
[00:33:35] be said or that might happen that you would really take note of that maybe somebody,
[00:33:40] some dummy like me, who’s only casually following this might miss?
[00:33:45] So we are, everyone’s worried about China potentially moving on Taiwan at some point.
[00:33:49] Now, one of the few things that is deterring the Chinese from doing that
[00:33:52] is that the U.S. has a large munitions stockpile and weapons stockpile to potentially shoot at
[00:33:59] Chinese ships and targets. We are burning through that real fast right now.
[00:34:05] And we should know at the start of the Trump administration, they sent, you know,
[00:34:09] millions of dollars worth of munitions and missiles into the sand to go after the Houthis.
[00:34:13] They are now doing that here in Iran. And one of the arguments that the Trump administration has
[00:34:17] said for why the U.S. can’t arm Ukraine to the hilt is because the U.S. is running low on things
[00:34:22] in its stockpile. But here we are burning through it to go after the Iranians. So if you’re the
[00:34:27] Chinese, on one hand, you’re going, oh, man, the U.S. strikes. That’s something, right? Maybe I do
[00:34:34] fear China. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.
[00:34:34] Trump in the White House. On the other hand, you’re going, I might fear him, but with what can
[00:34:39] he hurt me? Because we’re running low on stuff. And that’s going to cost billions of dollars,
[00:34:45] which means, you know, higher defense budgets could mean more jobs in the U.S. Let’s not
[00:34:49] discount that aspect. But there’s going to and you don’t rebuild these things, by the way,
[00:34:54] very quickly. It takes a long time. So the U.S. military is the strongest in the world ever,
[00:35:00] also ever. And I think we’re showing that. But that doesn’t mean
[00:35:03] resources are unlimited and that we can rebuild as quickly as we can. And so right now,
[00:35:08] Trump has made the bet that this war, the removal of this regime or whatever he’s trying to achieve
[00:35:14] is worth the shortish term risk to our lower stockpiles. All right. I’m gonna leave it right
[00:35:22] there. Thanks so much for answering the Sean signal, Alex. You got it. This episode was
[00:35:28] produced by Beth Morrissey and Thor Newriter, edited by Jorge Just, engineered by Shannon Mahoney
[00:35:32] and Christian Ayala.
[00:35:33] Fact Check by Melissa Hirsch. Theme song by Emma Munger. The Gray Area comes out on Mondays and
[00:35:39] Fridays. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts. If you watch podcasts while you listen, you can
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[00:36:09] to sign up because of this show, please let our bosses know. All right, Alex, you’re the best.
[00:36:15] Thank you so much for doing this. Where can people check out your incredible work? I cannot believe
[00:36:18] how much reporting you’re doing and how quickly you’re doing it. So for people who want to go
[00:36:22] read that, where can they read it? Well, first, you’re perfect, Sean. But you can go to the Wall
[00:36:27] Street Journal and look up Alexander Ward. You’ll find all my stories in a row. And you can find me,
[00:36:33] I guess, on social media at Alex B. Ward. And are you just on call here for basically 24 hours a
[00:36:38] day until this whole thing ends? Is that the deal? I didn’t put makeup, but you can see the bags are
[00:36:44] growing and they’re likely to grow longer. So yeah. Handsome as ever. Too kind. Too kind.
[00:36:49] Thanks, buddy. Appreciate it.